Global smartphone shipment growth for 2025 slashed by half amid tariff uncertainty: Report

Smartphones

Research firm Counterpoint has warned about a slowdown in smartphone shipments in the coming months owing to growing uncertainties around US trade tariffs. According to its report, smartphone shipment growth forecast will be 1.9% year-on-year (YoY), down from the previously estimated 4.2% YoY. Previously, IDC Research had warned that worldwide smartphone shipments would grow just 0.6% YoY in 2025, dramatically reducing from the previous shipment forecast of 2.3%.

2025 smartphone shipment growth estimate by Counterpoint

Counterpoint has warned that smartphone shipment growth in 2025 has been halved from previous forecasts, citing growing uncertainties around the recently announced US trade tariffs and lower demand in major markets like North America and China. However, most other regions are still expected to see growth, driven by sustained demand and resilient performance by key players like Apple and Huawei.

Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint, has added: “All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia.” The downgrade signals challenges for major smartphone manufacturers like Apple and Samsung that already face weakening sales amid heightened geopolitical tensions and escalating tariff disputes.

Despite the muted global scenario, Apple is expected to register positive shipment growth in 2025 due to strong early sales of the iPhone 16 series and growing adaptability in emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the GCC. Counterpoint also expects Huawei as a bright spot amid these lowered demands, with the Chinese tech giant expected to notch an 11% YoY shipment growth this year.