Ahead of iPhone 17, Apple powers smartphone market revival in 2025

Apple iPhone

Worldwide smartphone shipments are set to grow modestly by 1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, according to IDC’s latest forecast. That’s a slight upgrade from earlier projections of 0.6%, with Apple’s iOS leading the way at nearly 4% growth.

IDC notes that while global demand remains patchy amid economic headwinds, replacement cycles and consumer appetite for premium devices are expected to sustain momentum into 2026, with a 1.5% CAGR projected through 2029. The market has also been shielded from new US tariffs thanks to exemptions for smartphones, though uncertainty over trade remains a concern for manufacturers.

Regional dynamics paint a mixed picture. The US and Middle East & Africa are forecast to see strong growth of 3.6% and 6.5% respectively, while Asia-Pacific excluding China will post 0.8% gains. China, however, is expected to contract by 1% in 2025 as government subsidies taper off and economic conditions weigh on demand.

Interestingly, even with unit growth flat, vendors are chasing value. Average selling prices are forecast to rise 5% this year, pushing overall market value up 6%. This premiumisation trend is fuelled by new designs, foldables, advanced cameras, and AI features — alongside heavy promotions and financing schemes that make high-end phones more accessible.

Generative AI (GenAI) will be a major growth lever, with 370 million GenAI-enabled smartphones expected in 2025, representing nearly a third of the market. By 2029, IDC predicts more than 70% of smartphones will come with on-device AI features, as they trickle down from flagships into mid-range models.

Foldables are also maturing, with Samsung, Google, and Huawei pushing refinements in durability and price. IDC expects foldable shipments to rise 6% in 2025, though they’ll remain niche, accounting for under 3% of total volumes by decade’s end.