Will 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 destroy the Moon? Here's what scientists are saying about Earth's safety

Asteroid 2024 YR4: New Predictions Suggest Possible Moon Collision in 2032. (Image: AI generated)

The vastness of space is full of surprises. One such surprise is Asteroid 2024 YR4, which continues to grab global attention. Since its discovery in December 2023, scientists have been closely tracking its path, raising and lowering its chances of impact.

Impact Risk Now Lower, But Concerns Remain

Initially, experts feared a 1.5% chance of Earth impact. This made headlines, raising concerns of potential damage. However, recent observations have reduced this risk to just 0.28%. NASA confirmed this in a post on X, stating, “New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues.”

Despite the lower risk, astronomers are not letting their guard down. Asteroid 2024 YR4 remains under close observation as it continues its journey through space.

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Potential Damage If Earth Impact Occurs

While the odds of Earth impact have lessened, questions about possible damage remain. NASA explained that the extent of destruction depends on the asteroid’s size and composition.

If 2024 YR4 is on the smaller side, around 130-200 feet wide, it could trigger an airburst. This could shatter windows and cause minor structural damage over a city. But if it’s closer to 300 feet, the impact could be much worse. Residential structures might collapse, and widespread window shattering could occur.

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Moon Now a Possible Target

With the Earth impact threat reduced, scientists are now considering another scenario—a possible Moon collision. New studies suggest a 1% chance of the asteroid striking the Moon in 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, is still being monitored. Since its discovery, several space objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon—an astronomical near miss.

For now, both NASA and global space agencies remain vigilant. As more data comes in, predictions about the asteroid’s path will become clearer, ensuring any potential risks are identified early.