What to make of Prachanda, Oli parting ways over Nepal Presidential polls

Differences over the choice of Nepal’s next president has led Prime Minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal, better known as Prachanda, and his main coalition partner, Kharga Prasad Sharma Oli, to part company on Monday.
Prachanda, leader of the Maoist Centre, and, Oli, who heads the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), had formed a coalition in December 2022, after last year’s general election in the country, causing unease in India as it was perceived to have a pro-China tilt.

The president’s post in Nepal has traditionally been largely ceremonial. But in recent years, it has become politically active, leading political parties to ensure the incumbent is close to them.

However, if the president so desires, he will have a bigger role to play in a political setup, if the election throws up a hung Parliament and the prime minister is busy striking a balance between his different coalition partners to ensure his survival.

A few days back, Prachanda announced his decision to support senior Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel as president instead of Oli’s UML nominee, Subas Nembang.

Voting for the president will take place on March 9 and the winner will also be announced the same day.

President’s role in Nepal

Since the abolition of the monarchy in Nepal, the president has replaced the King as the head of the state. But in a democratic republic, the president is expected to highlight the views and policies of the government of the day.
However, Nepal’s last two presidents had decided to play a more proactive and independent role, often taking decisions which were in contravention to what the government or the prime minister wanted.

The first President of the Republic, Ram Baran Yadav, had stalled the prime minister’s move to sack the army chief for several days, sparking off a controversy between the two most important offices in the country.
His successor, Bidya Devi Bhandari, a nominee of Oli, had, on several occasions, ignored decisions taken by the then prime minister as the new government had replaced the one headed by the Oli CPN (UML)-led coalition.

Dueba forms coalition with Prachanda

Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Dueba and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) leader Madhav Nepal have now agreed to join a new coalition with Prachanda.

This ensures that Prachanda continues to be the prime minister when he faces a floor test in the coming days. But the political roulette, with one coalition replacing another at regular intervals, does not give the people of the country or those in the neighbours any confidence about political stability in Nepal.

In December 2022, Deuba’s Nepali Congress had emerged as the single- largest party in parliament with 89 seats. But with a five-party alliance, it managed 136 seats and fell short of a majority —138, in the 275-seat House.
Dahal’s Maoist Centre, with 38 seats, was the third-largest in parliament and part of the NC-led alliance.

Differences between Deuba and Prachanda

Deuba and Prachanda had a power-sharing agreement, under which the two leaders would take turns for the prime minister’s post for 2.5 years each. But differences arose on which of the two will get the first shot at the coveted post.

After Deuba refused to leave the prime minister’s post, Prachanda switched sides and formed a new coalition with Oli, whose party had 78 seats and was the second-largest in parliament.
It is interesting to note that Oli and Prachanda had a bitter parting some years back also and had remained bitter rivals.

However, when Oli saw a chance to wean Prachanda away from Dueba, he had decided to offer Prachanda the prime minister’s post for the first 2.5 years in a power-sharing agreement.

Oli had also stitched up an alliance with the support of five smaller parties that had given the new regime 172 seats in the 275- seat parliament.
The political drama had left Dueba in the lurch for a few months, but now the President’s election has provided him an opportunity to get back at Oli for denying him the prime minister’s post in December.

New Delhi’s concerns

Though both Prachanda and Oli had assured Delhi they would like to develop strong relations with Nepal’s two big neighbours—China and India -- Beijing’s proclivity of meddling in Nepal’s domestic politics in recent years had not gone down very well with India, which has traditionally considered Kathmandu in its zone of influence.

Why did Prachanda break his agreement with Oli?

It is not clear yet what made Prachanda to break his agreement with Oli and support the Nepali Congress nominee for the president’s post.

The past experience of how Oli used Bhandari to scuttle Prachanda’s policies and decisions when he was prime minister must have led him to take steps to not allow a repeat of what had happened some years back.
The CPN (UML), on its part, decided to part ways with Prachanda as it feared he would soon make a deal with the Nepali Congress and the CPN (United Socialist) and other smaller parties to replace all Oli nominees from key positions in the government.

Prachanda now has got into an arrangement with Dueba and Madhav Nepal where the three will share power by taking turns for the prime minister’s post.

How this interesting political arrangement works out in the coming days will be keenly watched by a lot of people within and outside Nepal.
But with so many former prime ministers running loose or waiting for an opportunity to have another shot at occupying the coveted post, restoring political stability and putting the country back on the growth track will be a huge challenge.