No endgame in sight in Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II

Biden spent more than five hours in the Ukrainian capital, consulting with Zelenskyy on next steps, honoring the country’s fallen soldiers and seeing U.S. embassy staff in the besieged country. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

The Ukraine war has proved most experts wrong. Contrary to the prediction of a short war, the Russian invasion has set alight the biggest and bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II.

As it enters its second year and the snow thaws, the war is likely to intensify further as Russia steps up its offensive and Ukrainian forces, with the backing of Western countries, raise their defences to push back the invaders.

US President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to the beleaguered Ukrainian capital on Monday for a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky shows Washington and European countries are willing to stand by Kyiv for the long haul.

Biden’s visit to Kyiv came in the midst of prediction by poll surveys in the US that support for Ukraine, both in terms of funding and supply of arms, was softening.

In addition, many allies who have helped supply Ukraine’s military are now expressing unease about the dent to their strategic assets.

Their concern in particular is over ammunition as Ukraine has been firing as many as 7,000 artillery shells a day, which is more than what the European arms industry has the capability to manufacture.

War’s impact, polarizing effect 

Over the past year, the war has impacted not only Europe but also other countries in different parts of the world.

Most significantly, the effect of the war has been on the supply of energy, food, fertilizer and other essentials. The impact on the global economy has been far worse as the war coincided with the attempted recovery from a two-year-long lockdown because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But it has also politically impacted Europe and the world beyond, polarizing them sharply.

Countries like Japan and Germany have given up their post-war pacifist stand to pursue a more proactive security policy.

Others like Finland and Sweden have given up their neutral stand and sought membership of NATO.

There is also rising pressure on Austria and Switzerland to join the anti-Russian alliance.

More importantly, the war has brought the US firmly back as the key provider of security in Europe and narrowed the trans-Atlantic gap that existed during Donald Trump’s presidency.

The US has so far spent over $50 billion on Ukraine since the war began, supplying it with weapons and funds.

Additionally, the war has succeeded in rejuvenating the “brain-dead” NATO and brought its members together to support Ukraine to deal with the Russian challenge.

Role of the Global South

However, the most significant development has been felt in the Global South that includes countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia and are also the most populous and poor countries of the world.

Despite the US attempt to isolate Moscow, developing and poor countries in the world have refused to condemn and sanction Russia.

Many countries have not approved of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as this puts their own territorial integrity and sovereignty at risk. But they have not jumped onto the American bandwagon to corner Russia.

Surveys have shown that although the rich and developed economies in the world have rallied behind the US, the majority of the countries of the ‘Global South’ have refused to do so.

It is interesting that although the disruption in food, energy and other essential items has affected both the rich and poor countries in the world, the effect has been worse in the developing world.

Concerns about American credibility 

Observers said the alacrity with which the rich countries had cornered the Covid vaccines without sparing a thought for the poor and developing countries that were struggling to deal with the onslaught of the pandemic in the absence of medicines or vaccines, may have led to their indifference to calls from the West to save democracy from Russia’s autocracy.

But numbers crunched by different agencies indicate that more than two-thirds of the countries in the world either remain neutral or pro-Russian.

In essence, this shows that despite the wide-scale propaganda by the Western governments and the media, the concerns are more about America’s credibility than that of Russia. The trust deficit between the developing world and America remains as it did during the Cold War period.

No endgame in sight

But even though the war has now completed a year, there is no endgame yet in sight.

The US has pitted the war as a fight between Russian autocracy and Ukrainian democracy and tried to rally support around the world in support of Ukraine.

But it is not clear if America and the European countries will continue to support Ukraine until it gets rid of Russian troops from all its occupied territory, including Crimea and Donbas.

If that is the goal of Ukraine and the western alliance then the world could be looking at a much longer and more destructive war in Ukraine.

India’s G20 Presidency

India’s refusal to condemn and sanction Russia has embarrassed the US and European nations. Since the world’s biggest democracy has decided to stay out of what it has been trying to project the Ukraine war as, it has become to convince many others in the developing world to join ranks against Russia.

However, India currently has the G20 Presidency and in the coming weeks and until the summit in September, a number of important meetings of the grouping will be held in the country.

Predictably, the Ukraine war and its impact on the world will continue to dominate the discussions.

India enjoys the confidence and trust of both Russia and the US-led western alliance. Therefore, there is a lot of expectation that Delhi could be the platform to build a consensus on the differing views to lay the groundwork for restoring peace in Ukraine.

Irrespective of where each country stands on the Ukraine conflict, that is definitely an outcome that most would like to see in the coming days.