JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic sees sunny stocks as Jamie Dimon braces for storm

Stock information in a window of the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, US, on Tuesday, May 31, 2022. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The US stock market is poised for a gradual recovery in 2022 and the S&P 500 Index will likely end the year unchanged since investors have “already absorbed and priced in” aggressive policy changes from the Federal Reserve, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic.

“We remain positive on risky assets due to near record-low positioning, bearish sentiment, and our view that there will be no recession given supports from US consumers, global post-COVID reopening, and China stimulus and recovery,” Kolanovic and his team wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

This view, however, differs from the thinking of JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, who earlier Wednesday warned investors to prepare for an economic “hurricane.” To Dimon, the US economy is staring down an unprecedented combination of challenges, from tightening monetary policy to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way,” Dimon said at a conference sponsored by AllianceBernstein Holdings Wednesday. “We don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself.”

Kolanovic, who was ranked the No. 1 equity-linked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey, hasn’t had much success with his calls so far in 2022. Earlier this year, his team suggested buying beaten-down stocks like small caps, and he has repeatedly urged investors to buy the dip during this year’s stock-market selloff. The S&P 500 Index has shed nearly 14% since the start of the year.

A growing number of strategists also disagree with Kolanovic’s optimistic view. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, who continues to be among Wall Street’s most prominent bears, sees last week’s stock market rebound as short-lived, as risks to the economy and corporate earnings growth remain with stubbornly high inflation. He sees the S&P 500 trading close to 3,400 by mid-August, implying 18% downside from Tuesday’s close. The index ended Wednesday’s session at 4,101.

Kolanovic and his team disagrees, saying that investors’ fears have gone too far.

“Bears are saying, ‘only the Fed making a U-turn can change the course of markets here,’” Kolanovic added. “We think this is not true as what is needed is incremental change relative to the significant amount of tightening already priced into the market.”