Israel eliminates Yahya Sinwar: What next for Hamas leadership?

According to the Israeli military, Sinwar was eliminated during an operation in southern Gaza after a prolonged hunt. (AFP file photo)

The recent killing of Yahya Sinwar, the chief of Hamas, marks a pivotal moment for the militant outfit amid escalating tensions with Israel. As a significant figure in the group, Sinwar's death raises pressing questions about Hamas' future leadership.

Here are the leaders and commanders within the group who may play key roles moving forward:

Mohammad Sinwar

Mohammad Sinwar, the brother of Yahya Sinwar, is a prominent and veteran commander within Hamas, particularly in its armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. Born on September 15, 1975, he has cultivated a notably low public profile, rarely appearing in media or public events, displaying him as an elusive figure in the militant outfit.

His status within Hamas is highlighted by his position as one of the top targets on Israel's wanted list. Reports from Hamas sources indicate that he has survived numerous assassination attempts over the years, including targeted airstrikes and roadside bomb attacks. The last known attempt on his life occurred in 2021, prior to the outbreak of the latest Israel-Gaza war, highlighting the constant threats he faces.

Mohammad Sinwar's involvement in military strategies against Israeli forces positions him as a critical player in the group's operational effectiveness.

Khalil Al-Hayya

Khalil Al-Hayya, who served as Yahya Sinwar's deputy, has played a significant role in Hamas' leadership, particularly in the ongoing conflicts with Israel. Of late, he has been leading the Hamas team in indirect ceasefire negotiations, operating under the supervision of Ismail Haniyeh.

During a recent incident, Al-Hayya was in the same residence as Haniyeh when a short-range projectile struck. It was, however, reported that they were not in the same apartment at the time of the attack. According to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and corroborated by The New York Times, the explosion that resulted in Haniyeh's death was attributed to a bomb.

Khalil Al-Hayya's connection to the violence extends beyond the current conflict. In 2007, an Israeli strike targeted the house of his extended family, leading to the deaths of several relatives. Additionally, in 2014, an attack on his home resulted in the tragic loss of his eldest son.

Mohammed Deif

Mohammed Deif, known as Hamas' military chief, is notorious for orchestrating major military operations against Israel. His survival through numerous assassination attempts has earned him the nickname "The Cat with Nine Lives." Deif's strategic acumen, particularly in constructing tunnel networks for infiltration into Israel, marks him as a highly sought figure by Israeli authorities, and his continued presence could be vital for Hamas' military resilience.

Khaled Meshaal

Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas from 2004 to 2017, remains an influential figure despite being based in Qatar. His past experiences, including surviving a failed assassination attempt in 1997 and imprisonment by Israel in 1989, have deeply informed his leadership style. Meshaal’s continued influence will be critical as Hamas navigates its next steps in response to the leadership shake-up.

Mahmoud Al-Zahar

Mahmoud Al-Zahar, a veteran leader at the age of 79, has not made any public appearances since the onset of the recent conflict on October 7. Known for his hardline stance and past role as the Minister of Foreign Affairs for Hamas, Al-Zahar's absence from the public eye raises concerns about his influence and the continuity of leadership within the organization.

Mohammad Shabana

Mohammad Shabana, also known as Abu Anas Shabana, commands a battalion in Rafah and has played a vital role in developing the network of tunnels used for operations against Israeli forces. His leadership in this critical area has solidified his standing within Hamas, making him an essential figure in the outfit's military capabilities.

Here are some past leaders of Hamas who are reportedly dead:

Marwan Issa

Marwan Issa, often referred to as the "shadow man" for his elusive nature, previously served as the deputy to Hamas’s military chief, Mohammed Deif. In March 2024, Israeli forces claimed to have killed Issa in an airstrike on a tunnel complex in Nuseirat refugee camp, though Hamas has yet to confirm his death. As part of a secretive three-man military council responsible for crucial strategic decisions, Issa’s absence could significantly impact Hamas's military operations.

Rawhi Mushtaha

Rawhi Mushtaha, a close ally of Yahya Sinwar and co-founder of Hamas’s security apparatus, has had a significant role in coordinating with Egyptian officials regarding the Rafah border crossing. While reports indicate that Mushtaha may have been killed in a prior strike, his current status remains uncertain, adding another layer of unpredictability to Hamas' leadership landscape.

Ismail Haniyeh

Ismail Haniyeh, once the overall leader of Hamas, was confirmed dead in Iran on July 31, 2024. His leadership marked critical political and military developments for Hamas, including serving as Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority after the group’s electoral victory in 2006.

Sinwar's assassination

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the killing of Yahya Sinwar marks the "beginning of the end" of the ongoing war in Gaza. According to the Israeli military, Sinwar was eliminated during an operation in southern Gaza after a prolonged hunt. His death is seen as a significant blow to Hamas, which has not yet confirmed the news.

Netanyahu hailed Sinwar's assassination as a key milestone in curbing Hamas' influence, declaring it an "important landmark in the decline of the rule of Hamas." Sinwar, who was in charge during the October 7 attack that precipitated the current conflict, was reportedly instrumental in orchestrating that deadly assault, which resulted in numerous civilian casualties in Israel.

The announcement follows a series of military operations that have already caused significant casualties in Gaza, with reports indicating over 42,000 deaths, predominantly among civilians.