Iran-Pakistan conflict: Regional equilibrium teeters, global powers on edge

Pakistan temporarily shelved the multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline project to import cheap energy from Iran.

Amid tension across the Middle East and beyond, Pakistan on January 18 carried out strikes in Iran’s Siestan and Baluchistan province, a day after Iranian forces attacked alleged military hideouts in Pakistan.

Stretching about 900 kilometres, the two share a volatile border with Pakistan’s Balochistan province on one side and Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province on the other. The strikes and counterstrikes come amid the conflict in the Middle East and Pakistan's struggle with political and economic issues.

What happened?

On January 16, Iran carried out a missile and drone attack on western Pakistan. Islamabad said two children were killed and three others injured in the attack in Balochistan. Iran said the operation targeted the militant group Jaish al-Adl. The outfit was described as an "Iranian terrorist group" in Pakistan. In response, Pakistan's government recalled its ambassador to Iran and blocked Tehran's envoy from returning. The Balochistan attack comes after Iran attacked targets in Iraq and Syria earlier this week.

The attack by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is being seen as a strategic move by the country. According to Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency, the operation aimed to demolish the two key strongholds of the Jaish al-Adl terrorist group in Pakistan.

Also read: Experts, intellectuals express caution with hope for de-escalation

On January 18, Pakistan carried out a series of "highly coordinated" military strikes in the Siestan and Baluchistan province of Iran. Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the strikes were aimed at "terrorist hideouts". It said the operation, named “Marg Bar Sarmachar”, resulted in the elimination of numerous terrorists through an intelligence-led mission.

What is Jaish al-Adl?

Founded in 2012, Jaish al-Adl is also known as the "Army of Justice”. The Sunni Salafi organisation operating mainly in south-eastern Iran bordering Pakistan, came to the fore in 2013 after it claimed responsibility for an attack that killed 14 Iranian guards. According to reports Jaish al-Adl had then said that the attack was an answer to the "violent crimes" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria and "the oppression and crimes the regime has committed against the oppressed Sunnis of Iran". The outfit is either an offshoot or an avatar of the older Jundallah terrorist organisation based in Pakistan’s Balochistan.

How did relations between Iran and Pakistan turn sour?

Traditionally, Pakistan and Iran have cooperated on a lot of issues. They have border markets to promote cross-border trade. However, the trade ties have been weak due to American sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme. Iran also sells electricity to Pakistan and has built a transmission line in Pakistan. Reportedly Iran can be a stakeholder in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a part of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). But last year, Pakistan temporarily shelved the multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline project to import cheap energy from Iran.

Also read: Here is the timeline of tensions in the Iran-Pakistan conflict

There have been two major sticking points between the two countries. One of them has been Pakistan's close ties with the US and its allies in the Arab world such as Saudi Arabia. Also, Iran’s apprehensions that a US-allied Pakistan will incite the Taliban against Iran after the US exits from Afghanistan.

Impact of the conflict

Iran's attack on Pakistan territory broadly adds to the crises across the West Asian region, with Israel waging a war in Gaza and Yemen's pro-Palestinian Houthi rebels attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

The situation brings out the fragile balance in the region with geopolitical rivalries, internal conflicts, and the fight against militancy. The global closely watches these developments, particularly as the Biden regime may designate the Houthis as global terrorists.

What do other countries say?

The US State Department slammed Iran for violating the sovereign borders of three nations in 48 hours. "I think it is a little rich... on one hand Iran (is) the leading funder of terrorism in the region, and, on the other hand, (it claims) it needs to take these actions to counter terrorism," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.

Meanwhile, China took a more neutral tone. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said, "We call on the two sides to avoid actions that escalate tension, and jointly keep the region peaceful." China shares close ties with Pakistan and imports a significant amount of oil from Iran.

Meanwhile, India underlined its “zero tolerance” stance towards terrorism but has also said it understands "actions that countries take in their self-defense. This is a matter between Iran and Pakistan." said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.