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Former Morgan Stanley Asia boss expects dollar to crash up to 35%

"Even a change Washington may not save the inevitable collapse"

June 16, 2020 / 12:41 PM IST
Representative Image

Representative Image

Former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach expects the US dollar to crash on the back of rising budget deficit and changing global landscape.

"The US economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit," Roach said in an interview with CNBC. "The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply."

The Asian market pundit expects a 35 percent drop in the greenback against other major currencies.

"These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead," he said adding that the country's savings rate may slump further into the negative territory, which could potentially be the biggest plunge "for the United States or any leading economy in economic history".

He added that another factor weighing on the dollar is the US moving towards a closed economy.

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"America is walking away from globalisation and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world," said Roach. "That’s a lethal combination."

On being asked how long his forecasts may take to unfold, Roach predicted a timeframe of roughly one to two years.

"Generally, it’s a negative implication for U.S. financial assets," he added. "It points to the probability of higher inflation as we import more higher cost foreign goods from overseas, and that’s a negative for interest rates."

According to him, even a leadership change in Washington may not prevent the fall especially at a time when lawmakers try to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus crisis with unprecedented stimulus measures.

“Policymakers to their credit have never had to deal with anything close to this disruption,” Roach said.
Moneycontrol News
first published: Jun 16, 2020 12:41 pm

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