India still performs significantly better as compared to countries supposed to be the epitome of sound macro management, the report said.
The stand-off between Russia and the western countries opens up various export opportunities for India, and the real possibility of an alternative oil-supply chain, said SBI's Group Chief Economic Advisor
India should use political stability at home and the Russia-Ukraine war as an opportunity to reach trade agreements with countries like Russia that could bypass the dollar, says SBI group chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh
Speaking to Moneycontrol, Ghosh said that apart from sustained formalisation efforts by the government, the COVID-19 pandemic also played a part in shrinking the size of the informal economy.
In a panel discussion on CNBC-TV18, Pronab Sen, Former Chief Statistician of India said that formal sector data is used as a proxy to estimate the informal sector data, hence even though the informal sector was hit harder due to demonetisation the numbers don't seem to reflect it.
"Possibly we could see some impact in Q4 numbers, they could be a little lower than Q3 numbers. We are not going to revise the projections because we are at 6.6 percent [GDP growth] for the full year and I think the fourth quarter number possibly could reflect some amount of the impact of demonetisation," Soumya Kanti Ghosh said.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor at SBI is happy with the CPI numbers, and is confident that the inflation numbers will remain below 4 percent till the end of FY17. But he warns that inflation may start rising soon after.
Roughly 75 percent of the currency that was removed out of the system is expected to be pumped back into the system in new notes by January 2017, says a report by the Economic Research Department, SBI.
Ashutosh Khajuria, ED at Federal Bank and Anubhuti Sahay, Head of South Asia Economic Research (India) at Standard Chartered Bank believe there is scope for rate cut by the RBI in its February policy.
The RBI has kept in the mind the possible rise in crude prices when keeping the rates unchanged, says Sajjid Chinoy, Economics, JPMorgan. A sudden surge in crude prices could create inflationary pressure on the economy.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh Chief Economic Advisor of SBI said that their projections were a clear 20 basis points down the September inflation rate.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of CARE Ratings said certain industries are hopeful of a rate cut as investment is facilitated with lower rates. However, keeping current inflation rate in sight it seems unlikely RBI will deviate from its target.
Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said the government is committed to structural reforms and other measures mentioned in Budget. "The 4 percent inflation target has demonstrated the government‘s commitment to undertake reform measures."
The growth was largely led by increase in production in core sector industries barring crude oil and natural gas.
CNBC-TV18 has constituted its own citizens monetary policy committee to shadow the Reserve Bank of India's policy. At the inaugural panel meet, members agreed that the RBI will keep its rates unchanged.
According to the bank's research report, despite a relatively high real interest rate, deposit rates of banks have not picked up.
The yearly SBI Composite Index for March has declined below 50 and is at 49.5, compared with last month index of 51.3. However, the monthly Index jumped to 54.5 in March 2016, from 49.1 in February 2016.
Budget has unveiled a big focus on revival of rural demand through a carefully drafted focus on the agricultural sector that strives to increase agricultural productivity thereby paving the way for non-inflationary growth over medium term, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Adviser & GM, Economic Research Department, SBI.
The CPI data has been consecutively hardening for the past four months and December is the fifth month. It has risen from levels of around 3.7 percent in July of 2015
Gold imports for the month fell, coming in at USD 1.7 billion versus USD 2.06 billion MoM. Silver imports too were down at USD 332.67 million against USD 433.49 million MoM
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor, State Bank Of India, says: "For the month of August, going by the current prognosis, there is an element of recovery that is happening. The industrial IIP data that is due on August 12 should be good enough. Maybe there is some amount of volatility built into these numbers."
The big setback comes on the exports front, which stood at USD 21.27 billion versus USD 23.14 billion MoM. In terms of a monthly year tally, exports are at multi-year lows.
The HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.3 in June from 52.6 in May, amid slowest rise in new orders since September 2014.
The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report (FSR) paints a picture of cautious optimism as it talks in terms of asset quality and points out that there are still a couple of quarters of pain ahead, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor of State Bank of India.
India's trade deficit for the month of May came in at a three-month low at USD 10.41 billion, marginally lower than USD 10.99 in April. Imports for the month too came in at a three-month low.