It seems the glory days are back for the dollar. The greenback rose to a three week high on Monday all thanks to US President‘s promise to cut taxes to encourage corporate profits and investments. The dollar has gained strength in the past few months and the dollar index has breached the 100 point mark.
The US dollar weakened against major currencies on expectations of a dovish US Fed. The US FDA rate hikes, if they do happen, could strengthen the currency, says Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank.
Sameer Goel, Head-Asia Rates and Currency Research at Deutsche Bank believes the Finance Minister opted in favour of credibility premium by sticking with the fiscal consolidation target.
Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank does not think Raghuram Rajan will close the doors on further rate cuts today but he will not commit to lowering rates going ahead either
The Reserve Bank of India too has built up reserves which help dampen over volatility in currency market, said Sameer Goel, Head-Asia Rates & Currency Research, Deutsche Bank.
The most prominent name in the mass exodus is that of its CFO Rajesh Garg, who quit to pursue his entrepreneurial ambitions. Company CEO Subhanu Saxena is overseeing finance functions in the interim.
Going ahead, Sameer Goel expects rupee to be in the range of 62-63 against dollar in the near-term. He also anticipates bond yield to touch 7.60 percent by the end of first quarter next year.
The dollar-yen has run out of steam, which is giving support to emerging market currencies, says Sameer Goel, head of Asia rates and currency research at Deutsche Bank.
Goel says the global currency market is seeing divergence in cues, reflecting the conflicting policies of central banks in developed markets
The rupee strengthened by 20 paise to trade at over seven-month high of 60.65 against the US dollar today on heavy capital inflows amid a higher opening in the equity market.
Goel, in his last assignment, led a USD 0.4 billion business based out of Johannesburg, with responsibility for 44 markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. In his last India-based role at GSK, he led the sales team comprising 4,500 direct and indirect field executives.
Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank says the market is rewarding policy actions that are seen as more credible and which have stored a lot more confidence in India as compared to some of the other emerging markets.
A balance needs to be struck between maintaining and furthering credibility, which Central Banks and EMs require to assure investors that they are keeping on track with monetary and fiscal discipline, says Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank .
According to Sameer Goel, the market is hoping for a game changer in terms of a big one-off move like a sovereign issuance. He believes the rupee will continue to be under pressure, but that would not be the key focus point now
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank says the environment for EMs continues to be challenging and dedicated debt funds that invests in EMs will continue to see redemption pressures, though at a lower scale and pace.
Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank told CNBC-TV18 that the pullout of FIIs from emerging markets was a pan-Asian phenomenon due to volatility in these markets. He added that the India's deficit problems and rupee depreciation was impacting these flows to the country.
Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank believes the inflation figure will certainly pose a problem for the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates in its upcoming policy meet. However, he feels a 25 basis point rate cut can be expected.
Sameer Goel of Deutsche Bank believes it has benefited from a huge round of global quantitative easing. He is also hopeful of seeing further upside in the Indian currency from current levels.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18 Ashish Vaidya, head- FICC Trading, UBS and Sameer Goel, Head Asia Rates & Currency Research, Deutsche Bank explained the reason for poor appetite among foreign investors to buy Indian government and corporate bonds, despite relaxed conditions.
Sameer Goel, head of Asia Rates & Currency Research, Deutsche Bank, says that if foreign currency denominated bonds as offered the way it was offered in the past then they could prove to be effective in bringing more dollars into the system.
The rupee touched its all-time low of 54.36 on Wednesday and reached 54.34 this afternoon. However, finance ministry sources seemed to be hardly concerned with the fall in the rupee.
The Indian rupee today breached 50 per dollar mark. Sameer Goel, head of Asian rates & currency research, Deutsche Bank expects rupee to perform better ahead.
Sameer Goel, head of Asia rates and currency research at Deutsche Bank feels rupee looks undervalued by 10-12% and oversold in the short-term. He also indicated that the weak global sentiment can last longer and Rs 54.20 per dollar could be breached if global weakness continues.
All eyes are on the monetary policy review by the Reserve Bank of India on March 17. However, there is a growing concern that RBI may further hike rates in this year.