Holding on to good companies in this market turmoil is the least one can do in one's wealth creation journey. In life & investing, we are trained to see action as a sign of progress.
We find ample opportunities to invest in the market in sectors and stocks which either have seen a sharp correction over the past year or have point-to-point negligible returns on a 3-5 years basis.
Auto & the IT are the sectors that are expected to outperform in the coming months. Autos have been showing strength & can continue to remain strong whereas IT is gearing up for a reversal.
The mood in the market has improved in the last couple of weeks, but this could be a short-term rebound. We did see a slight easing in European inflation. While the recession in the west is more of a reality, many expect the pain to be over sooner. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out another correction.
A bigger worry is a weak currency that is going to make imports expensive and add to inflation. We are nowhere near the bottom, a lot of liquidity of is yet to be sucked out of the markets once foreign investors exit.
It is time to bet on auto shares for over-sized returns, in the next 2-3 years. That's the view from Ashutosh Tiwari of Equirus, who said IT could now stay rangebound after the selloff so far, as US recession fears linger.
"We do think that the next three to six months might be challenging but for a long term investor who is able to take a five year plus view, this period presents a very good buying opportunity."
Most sectors have witnessed sharp downgrades and therefore contraction in valuation. We would avoid sectors which can relatively underperform. And therefore, we believe best of commodities and FMCG is behind us.
While Setalvad, who is Senior Fund Manager, Equities, at HDFC Asset Management Company, does not rule out a further slide. He says any meaningful downside from here would lead to attractive valuations.
Anyone investing in the equity markets should not be swayed by short-term gains or losses. The long-term market returns should make up for the fact that the market has had a poor run in 2022 till now.
We have not yet seen actual earnings downgrades; we expect that to begin with the Q1FY23 results.
Today the excessive money printing, the supply chain disruptions, the resurgent demand and resultant inflation are risks that have all been priced in with the benefit of hindsight.
Underperformers of the last leg of bull market should be avoided including midcap private banks.
Stock markets are celebrating the turn in inflation, but the bond markets are looking at the coming slowdown
Commodity producers always do well in high inflation regimes. During recession, sectors catering to essential goods do well, said Vivek Sharma of Gulaq
Many new-age companies may delay their IPOs, and weaker companies may never become public. Axis Securities believes that they could get merged with stronger ones, if global liquidity taps dry up.
We expect FPI flows to become positive only after the global markets stabilize and crude price corrects to well under $100 a barrel.
Monetary policy looks likely to tighten more rapidly than the market can take, and this will be amplified by liquidity contraction through reserve ratio increases / central bank balance sheet run offs.
"Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been sellers in the Indian equity market for many months. We believe that FII flows have a direct linkage to the global sentiment, which currently looks a tad weak."
When comparing the current scenario to that in the past 4-5 years, the specialty sector is expensive now as stock prices have risen.
The renewable industry is expected to grow 4X in size by 2030 to 450-500 GW. We prefer solar on the renewables side and would like to wait for further valuation cool down in fossil fuel-based power companies.
The pharma sector and the FMCG (consumer staples) sector would fare better in a recessionary environment, to an extent. However valuations in most of the FMCG companies, and in some of the pharma companies, may not offer much upside from present levels.
"Impact of inflation for the next couple of quarters is discounted by the markets and any high inflation beyond that would affect earnings."
The Indian economy is in a long-term growth phase which makes the Indian equity markets a compelling long-term investment.
Some factors that give hope to investors are a normal monsoon and robust private sector capex in specific pockets, which may provide a fillip to the markets in the second half of 2022, according to Bhuskute