The investors are focusing on the two nations in emerging Asia, thanks in part to an expected boom in infrastructure spending, which in turn bodes well for the countries’ economies.
The two countries are undertaking political, fiscal and tax reforms, which create a better competitive environment for businesses to operate in, said Malcolm Dorson, senior portfolio manager at Global X Management in New York.
The Nifty-50 index has gained 2.6% over the period, compared with drops of 0.7% and 2.2% in MSCI’s Asia and emerging market gauges, respectively. At the same time, growing bearish bets in the options market are signaling that the rally may have run its course.
As of the end of January, Taiwan’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose to 14.2%, behind leader China’s 31.2%, while India’s fell to the third spot with 13%, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. India captured the second spot from Taiwan in August.
The currency has lagged peers from the Thai baht to the Indonesian rupiah this month, gaining only 1.4% even amid sustained dollar weakness.
Chinese equities are seen making up lost ground as the extreme pessimism toward its economy recedes and authorities take further steps to revive stuttering growth.
Indonesia and Malaysia look most resilient, thanks to relatively low inflation and commodity exports. China is at number 3.
The Fed increased the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent on strong macroeconomic data and confidence in inflation which is rising to central bank’s target.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Jan Dehn of Ashmore said though the execution of demonetisation hasn‘t been as smooth as expected, this is a temporary aberration. “The Indian economy will come out of it without any lasting damage and come out in a stronger place; the underlying fundamentals will remain solid.â€
"(EMs) have a lower exposure to an export-driven (growth) model than is generally assumed. They have a better, balanced-type of growth model," said Hechler Fayd'herbe, adding a large majority of EM countries have only a third of their gross domestic product (GDP) that is dependent on international trade.
Citi says in the week of 11/23/2016, bond funds continued to see a large outflow of USD 8.6 billion while equity funds had an inflow of USD 5.2 million. India continued to see USD 837 million of FII outflow.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Ray Farris of Credit Suisse said that the rupee in the emerging market basket of 20 currencies which he covers is relatively strong. The Indian rupee has fallen by over 2 percent since November 8, but it is the best performing currency among the 20 currencies he looks at, he said.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Geoff Lewis of Manulife Asset Management said that Donald Trump has been a game-change in the sense there is a movement away from a scenario of low margin growth and low interest rates.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Institutional Equities said that corporate earnings have been a mixed bag this time around.
Despite turmoil in places such as Argentina, Brazil and swaths of the Middle East and Africa, foreign investment in a number of developing economies is quickening this year — which is also helping to feed government spending.
After meeting investors in US over the past couple of weeks, Surendra Goyal of Citi says while most investors still like India in the emerging markets (EM) context, the mood on EMs overall is generally cautious post the rally of 20 percent since February.
Globally, there is a confidence over the growth trajectory of emerging markets and India remains one of the fastest growing emerging markets (EMs), according to analysts at JPMorgan.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Christopher Palmer of Benson Avenue Capital said that investors have been on the sidelines for many months with regard to risk assets.
Markets world over are in a 'precarious' position right now, Michael Every of Rabobank said.
Following the turmoil of the UK's vote to exit the European Union (EU), the combined value of bonds with negative yields jumped to USD 11.7 trillion, according to a Fitch Ratings report on June 29, marking a 12.5 percent increase since the end of May.
That relatively modest selling compared with USD2.7 billion on August 24 in 2015 when concerns about China's economy and a devaluation of its currency triggered global financial market jitters.
There is not much clarity for investors. Central banks will have to coordinate with each other to control volatility from spiking up in near-term, says Viktor Shvets of Macquarie.
Christopher Palmer, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Benson Avenue Capital says weak dollar will take pressure away from emerging markets (EMs) and give them more scope for easier monetary policy.
Our preferred 'defensive' markets are India, Taiwan, Mexico and Korea, says Caesar Maasry of Goldman Sachs.
The IMF report points out that much of this current slowdown in capital flows is explained by a decline in the expected differential in growth in the emerging markets versus the advanced economies.