Why parties sense a real chance amid political churn in Punjab

Voting across Punjab's 13 Lok Sabha seats will take place on June 1.

With the ongoing political churn in Punjab, major parties sense a real chance leading into June 1, the day when 13 Lok Sabha constituencies go to polls in the state.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the ruling party in the state, seems to be making efforts to establish an identity, while the Congress appears to fear losing its identity. The Shiromani Akali Dal seems to be on a course correction mode, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying various ways to make inroads into Punjab.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an interview to Dainik Jagran, unequivocally stated that the compulsion of coalition dharma prevented the saffron party from expanding into the hinterland of Punjab. He added that as the saffron party is not bound by the ‘coalition dharma’ leading into June 1, it presents a bigger scope for the party to establish itself in Punjab. PM Modi also reflected upon the growing churn in Punjab. The border state is seeing a four-cornered contest for the first time in nearly three decades.

Hoping to extract political dividends from the Ram Mandir issue, the saffron party, which is going solo for the first time since 1996 after its talks to re-stitch an alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) failed, plans to consolidate this strategy voter base. To date, the Hindu vote bank, which has a sizeable numbers in as many as 34 assembly segments, has remained a silent deciding factor in the state, especially in the post-1990s election era.

The BJP's solo venture in Punjab aims to capitalize on internal party dynamics, including the induction of key figures from rival parties, to strengthen its position in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections and potentially emerge as a dominant political force in the state. Also, the BJP might want to test its own strength by going solo.

The vote share of the BJP was 5.4% from the 24 seats it contested in the 2017 assembly elections in alliance with the SAD. It rose to 6.6% when it fought from 73 seats in the 2022 assembly elections alone. However, in the 2019 parliamentary elections, the party had secured a 9.63% vote share.

Congress functionaries are confident that the party has the edge in the four-cornered contest in Punjab.  In an interview to The Week, Congress veteran Partap Bajwa said: “Our party will bring minimum support price if given a chance. There was a recent survey in Punjab which had the Congress’s chances at 30 per cent, the Aam Aadmi Party’s at 27 per cent, the BJP’s at 18 per cent and the Shiromani Akali Dal’s at 16 per cent. The Congress clearly has the edge".

The state leadership from the outset have opposed any kind of tie-up with the AAP in Punjab. Responding to a question on an alliance with AAP,  Partap Bajwa states: " If tAAP and the Congress came together, the major beneficiary would be the AAP. They will take most of our cadres. Besides, they lack leaders. A lot of their candidates are former Congressmen".

The Shiromani Akali Dal is, however, hitting at all three national parties, including the AAP, Congress and the BJP, and asking people to vote for SAD, a regional party, to save the interests of the state as well as to strengthen the idea of federalism.

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which is toiling to reclaim lost ground appears to be narrowing its focus down to “regional identity”. As the party continues its ‘Punjab Bachao Yatra’ (Save Punjab) march, party president Sukhbir Singh Badal on Sunday targeted the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), calling them outsiders and Delhi-based parties that have never let Punjab’s interests prevail.