How Pashupati Paras' exclusion may affect NDA's prospects in Bihar

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Pashupati Paras won the Hajipur seat by a significant margin

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) constituents have finalised their seat-sharing arrangement in Bihar. After days of speculation and unconfirmed reports on the seat-sharing arithmetic, the final breakdown largely aligns with the circulating reports. The BJP has secured one more seat than Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United). This allocation comes as both major allies had contested an equal number of seats, 17, in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

However, the final breakup has led to speculation about the potential impact of Union minister Pashupati Paras’ exclusion from the seat-sharing deal. BJP’s decision to exclude Paras could potentially lead to a contest between the two factions of the LJP in some Bihar seats, with ramifications for alliance's unity and electoral prospects.

Following his exclusion, Pashupati Paras has tendered his resignation as the Union minister of Food Processing reiterating that grave injustice has been done to him during the finalisation of the seat-sharing pact.

The alliance breakup

According to the agreement, the BJP is set to fight 17 seats, one more than its biggest ally in the State, the Janata Dal (U) at 16 seats, alongside Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan to fight on five seats, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) at one seat each.

What might worked in favour of Chirag Paswan

Chirag Paswan’s age and his aggressive campaigning in the state may have eventually sealed the deal in his favour. BJP has pitched him as a long-term player in Bihar politics. The NDA allocated five Lok Sabha seats for LJP (Ram Vilas) in Bihar sensing Chirag Paswan's ability to draw big crowds at his rallies in Bihar. Through the move, the BJP underscored that it is he and not his uncle who is the political heir of the late Dalit stalwart Ram Vilas Paswan.

Revisiting the LJP split

The Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) split in Bihar following its founder Ram Vilas Paswan’s death in 2021. Paras, the younger brother of Ram Vilas Paswan, took five of the MPs with him barring Paswan’s son Chirag, who was forced to form his party.

Also Read: NDA seals Bihar seat-sharing deal: BJP to contest 17 seats, JD(U) 16

Fight for the legacy seat of Hajipur

The late Ram Vilas Paswan had represented the Hajipur seat in the Lok Sabha eight times, making it his personal stronghold. In the 2019 LS poll, he had fielded his brother, Paras, from the seat, in a move to retain his political and electoral legacy. After the senior Paswan died in October 2020, however, his Lok Janshakti Party was split into the two parties now led by his son and brother.

Paras also said he would again contest from Hajipur, a seat where his estranged nephew Chirag Paswan has been staking a claim since it was once the bastion of LJP founder and his father Ram Vilas Paswan.

The five seats allocated to Chirag Paswan might witness a contest between the two factions of the LJP.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Pashupati Paras won the Hajipur seat by a significant margin against Lalu Prasad's RJD, receiving 53.72% of the total votes polled. If Paras follows through with his threat, it could lead to an interesting battle.

Political analysts say Chirag Paswan is planning a show of strength in the constituency as he is in a tug of war with the other faction of LJP.

The Bihar electorate includes an over 6 percent Paswan vote, which plays a significant role in several constituencies in the State.

The probable electoral ramifications of excluding Paras

The exclusion of Paras and the allocation of seats to Chirag Paswan's faction could lead to a competitive electoral battle between different factions of the LJP in Bihar.

The dissatisfaction within certain elements of LJP may affect the overall electoral prospects of NDA especially in seats where the LJP has a significant presence. The NDA's success in Bihar in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning 39 out of the 40 seats, was largely attributed to its unity and strong alliance.