Gujarat polls: Congress may be trying to avoid a Modi vs Rahul campaign

Arvind Kejriwal (AAP), Narendra Modi (BJP) and Rahul Gandhi (Congress)

With the Gujarat assembly elections set to be announced soon, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Aam Aadmi Party have been campaigning in the state, while the Congress party, the traditional contender, appears to be a late starter this time.

The Congress won 77 seats in the 2017 polls in Gujarat. The saffron party, which has ruled the state since 1995, was restricted from crossing the 100-seat mark in the 182-member assembly for the first time in 22 years. However, the Congress has subsequently been plagued by defections to the BJP.

Political experts said the Congress may lose its chances if it doesn’t improve its visibility in the run-up to the polls.

AAP has already made inroads into the state and can dent the prospects of both the BJP and the Congress, even though logically, its extensive campaign may hurt the Congress more. AAP is campaigning aggressively in both the urban and rural areas, whereas the Congress has so far stuck to rural Gujarat, experts said.

“The contest in Gujarat has traditionally been between the Congress and the BJP, but AAP made its position comfortable by reaching out to the people on time. The party has invested a lot of energy on the ground and it’s too late for the Congress to stop their entry into Gujarat politics,” said Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research. “The party was aiming at Himachal Pradesh as well, but now they are more focused on Gujarat. The entire leadership has been moved to the state,”said Verma.

Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh are scheduled on November 12 and the votes will be counted on December 8.

Delayed campaign
Verma added that AAP’s vote share in these elections would be interesting to note. The party contested 29 seats in the 2017 election and all its candidates lost their deposits.

Amid the Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi and the recent party presidential elections, the central leadership of the Congress doesn’t seem to have devoted much time to campaigning in Gujarat. A senior Congress leader admitted the campaign was delayed.

“We will gain momentum on the ground, but it would have been better had we started the yatra a month ago,” the leader said, requesting anonymity.
The Congress launched five yatras across five zones of Gujarat on November 1 to reach out to the people ahead of the polls. The party will hold 145 public meetings and 95 rallies along the route covering about 5,400 km.

“Rahul Gandhi will also come to Gujarat for at least two days, once the polls are announced by the Election Commission of India. The party will also release the list of star campaigners after November 4,” said Bhargav Thakkar, general secretary of the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee.

The ruling BJP has already carried out five yatras across 182 assembly seats. More recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on a two-day visit to his home state and addressed many public meetings.

“During the 2017 assembly polls in Gujarat, the Congress was really active. The Patidar agitation and leaders like Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor played an important role for the party,” Verma said.

In July 2015, the Patidar community of Gujarat started their agitation, demanding Other Backward Class (OBC) status and reservation in government jobs and education. The agitation was spearheaded by the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti, of which Hardik Patel was the leader.
He joined the Congress in March 2019 and served as the working president of the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee. However, he became a strong critic of the party and joined the BJP in June 2022.

The Patidar stir continued into 2016 and there was rioting at some places, following which the Gujarat government announced 10 percent reservation for the community and withdrawal of cases against protesters.

Job reservation
However, the Gujarat High Court quashed the reservation, calling it unconstitutional and in violation of the Supreme Court’s 50 percent ceiling as declared in the 1992 Indra Sawhney case.

In its 2017 election manifesto, the Congress promised to reserve jobs for the Patidar community. The Congress also helped Mevani, a Dalit activist, as an independent by not fielding its candidate against him in the Vadgam constituency. He formally joined the Congress in Delhi in September 2021.

Mevani is currently out on bail in connection with a case registered in 2016, when he and others protested near Vijay Char Rasta in Ahmedabad demanding that the Law Bhavan of Gujarat University be named after BR Ambedkar.

The Congress also got support from activist Thakor, who joined the party in October 2017. He won from Radhanpur constituency in 2017. However, he left the Congress in April 2019 and joined the BJP. His wish to contest the Lok Sabha election, however, was not fulfilled.

Young leaders played a key role for the Congress in 2017. However, in 2022, the Congress is seen losing ground in Gujarat and it also has AAP in competition.

AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia have been touring the state, holding rallies and public meetings. Earlier, the party lambasted the BJP for poor infrastructure in the health and education sectors. Now, it is targeting the ruling party over the collapse of the suspension bridge in Morbi, which killed 135 people.

Kejriwal and Sisodia accused the BJP of corruption, saying the bridge collapse was not an accident, but the murder of innocent people.
AAP declared a list of 237 new office bearers for Gujarat on November 2. The party also released its eighth list of 22 candidates for the polls, bringing the total number of declared candidates to 108. AAP’s campaign “Choose Your Chief Minister” is the latest push to garner support.

“The Congress doesn’t have the intention to take its campaign to macro level by calling Rahul Gandhi for every rally and public meeting,” political analyst Rasheed Kidwai said. “If Rahul Gandhi takes the centre stage, it will become Modi versus Rahul Gandhi. Modi has a huge support base in the state.”

Also read: Will win Gujarat polls, AAP only in air, nothing on ground: Rahul Gandhi

AAP has come to Gujarat with a greater political thought, and this can certainly impact the Congress if it doesn’t frame its strategy on time. Preparing for the elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat will be the first key tasks for newly elected Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge.

“Congress president Kharge is conscious about his image. He has to emerge as a leader of the party and lead from the front,” Kidwai added.