As all 20 Lok Sabha seats vote on April 23, will Sabarimala open the doors for BJP in Kerala?

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Kerala is all set for a tri-polar contest in the oncoming Lok Sabha polls.

As all the 20 constituencies in Kerala go to polls in a single phase on April 23, let’s take a look at what is at stake in the southern state:

Left, Right and Congress

With Congress president Rahul Gandhi in the fray from Wayanad, the battle in Kerala will be closely-watched. Whether or not it will translate into Rahul’s victory, his candidature is certainly a cohesive force in an otherwise split Kerala Congress, which has marred the party’s political prospects in many elections.

Besides, in Thiruvanathapuram, it’ll be sitting MP Shashi Tharoor, who is seeking a third term, against RSS ideologue K Rajasekharan, who stepped down as the Governor of Mizoram this year to contest election on a BJP ticket. Thiruvanathapuram has been a fertile ground for Hindutva politics for a long time, and with Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigning here, it could become the launchpad of BJP in the state.

Meanwhile, the Left has fielded C Divakaran, who believes that the LDF government’s stance on the entry of women in the Sabarimala temple will not sway the votes in the BJP’s favour and that the Congress will eat into the anti-BJP sentiment in the state causing a split vote. Divakaran’s argument could be buttressed by 5 crore women making a the 620-km long wall, that spanned the whole state, to protest against the opposition to the entry of women in the temple.

Also Read | With many contenders vying for the Wayanad seat, will Rahul Gandhi win from the Congress bastion?

Wearing his Hindu identity on his sleeve, Tharoor has vocally sided with Lord Ayyappa’s devotees on the Sabarimala issue. In his book, Why I Am A Hindu, he has written, “Despite the flaws in some of its practices, my admiration for and pride in Hinduism outweighs my critical concerns, and I make no apology for this.”

It is noteworthy that the vote share of the saffron party has increased from 6.3 percent in 2009 to 10.5 percent in 2014. The BJP has not only grown naturally in the state, but has also formed an alliance with the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena, a political arm of the Hindu lower cast Ezhavas.

The Sabarimala factor

The opening of the doors of the Sabarimala temple to women of all ages also opened the door to a triangular contest in Kerala. While the issue has given the saffron party an opportunity to consolidate the Hindu vote, the Congress and the Left are banking on the support of minorities.

The BJP, which hopes to win at least in three seats – Pathanamthitta, Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur – has fielded formidable candidates from these seats.

Their best bet is Pathanamthitta, the constituency where the Sabarimala temple is located, and the seat which got the BJP 16 percent voteshare in the last election. The BJP has fielded K Surendran, who was at the forefront against the entry of women in the temple.

Also Read | Lok Sabha polls: Anti-incumbency, Ayyappan and the Church in Kerala’s Pathanamthitta

In Thiruvanathapuram and Thrissur, where the BJP had gotten 32.32 percent and 11.15 percent votes respectively in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the candidate are appealing to the faithful by invoking the name of Lord Ayappa, the central deity in the Sabarimala temple.

Among the faithful, the Left will certainly bear the brunt of their decision, however, it isn’t sure if the anti-Left votes will be polled in favour of the BJP, especially with the Congress demanding their slice of the communal pie. The Congress candidates claim that they have been championing the cause of devotees too, and that the BJP’s “lip service” is clear by their inaction against the Supreme Court order at the Centre.

The election is crucial for all three parties – the Left, for its survival at the national level; the Congress for strengthening its bid to power; and for the BJP to offset its losses in the Hindi heartlands.