Andhra Pradesh Assembly election 2019: Exit polls show mixed predictions for TDP, YSRCP

Exit polls have painted a mixed picture for Andhra Pradesh in the 2019 Assembly elections. Polls are divided on what could be the final result.

While some exit polls predict a landslide victory for YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), others have predicted N Chandrababu Naidu’s ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to retain power.

Elections for 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly constituencies were held simultaneously in the State on April 11. The two state parties were locked in a fierce battle. Counting of votes will happen on May 23.

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, YSRCP is expected to win 119-135 seats while TDP may finish with just 39-51 seats. It has projected 1-3 seats for Pawan Kalyan's JanaSena Party (JSP) and 0-2 for others.

The People’s Pulse exit poll has also predicted that YSRCP could win the state election with 112 seats, while the ‘yellow party’ could win 59. JSP is expected to get as many as four seats, according to the poll.

Hyderabad-based agencies like CPS and Aaraa have also predicted a cakewalk for Reddy’s party, predicting 130-133 and 117-135 seats, respectively. The ruling party would garner 43-44 and 38-56, respective agencies suggest.

It is Jagan Mohan Reddy’s efforts that could be credited if exit poll results hold on May 23.

Jagan, son of former AP Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, gained prominence after his ‘Praja Sankalpa Yatra’. For more than 14 months beginning November 2017, Jagan toured the state, walking 3,600 km and covered thousands of villages. The tour was aimed at projecting Jagan as a committed and strong leader and may have brought him closer to the voters.

His poll promises such as ‘YSR Raytu Bharosa,’ which promises Rs 50,000 immediate cash transfer to each farmer and ‘YSR Aasara’, which would give interest-free loans and interest-waiver of up to Rs 50,000 could have helped him. Prevailing anti-incumbency could be the other factor that worked in YSRCP’s favour.

On the other side, some exit polls have predicted TDP to retain power. Agencies such as INSS Media have predicted that the TDP will win 118 seats while YSRCP lags far behind with 52. It has given 5 seats to JSP, more than any other exit poll. Lagadapati Rajagopal’s RG-Flash Team has also projected 90-100 seats for TDP and 65-79 for YSRCP.

The welfare doles that came from the TDP government ahead of the polls could be seen as an important factor. In the last Budget, the Chandrababu Naidu-led government announced a new welfare scheme for farmers named ‘Annadata Sukheebhava’. He also announced granting Rs 10,000 to every woman of self-help (DWCRA) groups under ‘Pasupu-Kumkuma’ scheme.

In the 2014 Assembly elections, TDP had won 102 seats while its then ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won four. YSRCP had won 67 seats while the rest two seats were bagged by independent candidates.