Why the Northeast exit polls are giving BJP and its allies the upper hand

In Meghalaya, the exit polls are unanimous that ruling NPP is going to emerge as the single largest party. (Image: Twitter @PIBKohima)

What emerges from the exit polls of the three northeastern states – Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland — is that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been seen performing well in all three states. Although there have been instances of  exit polls going wrong, this piece will focus on the factors responsible for these results, considering the polls are correct.

The Modi Factor

The saffron party has been a growing force in the northeastern region, which was once a bastion of Congress. The Narendra Modi-led BJP government’s approach to connect with the region, which often has tonnes of complaints against New Delhi for ignoring it, through its welfare schemes and developmental projects have definitely boosted the saffron party’s image. So in these states, Brand Modi has been popular and this seems to have helped BJP immensely.

In Tripura, where the incumbent BJP was hit by factionalism, the exit polls come as a huge relief. All the exit polls, barring one, claim that the BJP-led NDA is going to form the government in the state. Although Times Now-ETG Research hasn’t given a majority to the BJP+, it still predicts that the saffron coalition is likely to get the maximum numbers.

Apart from the Modi factor, three other possible factors are working in BJP’s favour.

Tripura: Manik Saha bet works

First, royal scion Pradyot Debbarma’s TIPRA Motha seems to have eaten into a section of votes of the Left-Congress alliance in the non-ST seats. Motha has given candidates in 22 non-ST seats, including some Muslim dominated seats. Some of these Motha candidates have a Congress background.

Secondly, since its defeat in the 2018 state polls, the CPM has seen an erosion of its base in substantial numbers. Though in the last civic polls, there were signs of the Left regaining its votes it seems that the party hasn’t been able to gain that section of its vote it lost to BJP. Moreover, there may be possibilities of vote transfers not happening properly among Left and Congress voters on the ground. Importantly, unlike the West Bengal Left-Congress model, Tripura’s model had no friendly fights between the two allies in any constituency.

Last but not the least, the decision to replace Biplab Deb with Manik Saha, an honest and a soft-spoken person, as the new chief minister may have helped the saffron party in blunting the anti-incumbency.

Nagaland: Rio’s Clout, NPF’s Decline

In Nagaland, the incumbent NDPP-BJP combining to win a majority of the seats is not surprising.  One of the major factors for the saffron party’s good performance is due to its ally chief minister Neiphiu Rio-led NDPP. Rio is a popular face in the state. Apart from the Modi factor, another factor contributing to the NDPP-BJP alliance is the collapse of the Opposition in the state.

NPF, which won 26 seats last time, this time contested only on 22. And Congress has been reduced to almost a fringe player in the state. BJP has also cultivated its own leaders like Y Patton, present deputy chief minister and party state president Temjen Imna Along, who is also quite popular on social media.

Meghalaya: Will NPP-BJP patch up? 

Coming to Meghalaya, the state is known for its hung verdicts, and the exit polls are unanimous that ruling NPP is going to emerge as the single largest party. Although BJP is expected to win more seats than last time, it seems that it is going to miss its target of getting seats in double digits. The vote share of the saffron party is expected to be in double digits higher than last time’s 9.6 percent.

Apart from the Modi factor, the Meghalaya BJP has some popular faces like Sanbor Shullai and Alexander Laloo Hek. The minority Hindu section voting largely for BJP is likely to benefit the party. In the elections, BJP has fought on all seats and didn’t shy away from attacking senior partne NPP, which still is a constituent in the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) led by BJP. NPP is likely to continue the alliance with BJP as the latter is the ruling party at the Centre and it always helps to have the Centre in your corner.

If the BJP performs well, as predicted by the exit polls, in these three northeastern states, where two are Christian majority ones, it is also time for the Opposition to have a deep introspection why even a sizeable section of Christians are deserting the “secular parties” and are opting to vote for a “Hindu nationalist” party like BJP.

Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.