US and India cannot slacken in Great Game with China in the Pacific Island countries

PM Modi during his visit to Papua New Guinea.

Scattered in the vast southern Pacific Ocean, a group of tiny island nations are now increasingly the focus of the Great Game being played out between China and its US-led rivals for influence. But it isn’t only the Great Powers slugging it out to hold sway in the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), which straddle crucial sea lanes. Driven by its own geostrategic imperatives, and the evolving world order, India too has stepped up its engagement with the PICs in recent years. The largest of these countries, Papua New Guinea (PNG), hosted both US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the same time earlier this week. Papua New Guinea is one of the PICs where China has increased its footprints manifold, pouring in money and resources to build infrastructure. A $414 million Chinatown complex, a convention centre and the tallest high-rise in PNG are all Chinese-built.

Both Secretary Blinken and PM Modi flew into PNG’s capital Port Moresby on May 21 from Hiroshima after the G-7 and Quad summits there. Both also held separate summits with the leaders of the PICs. But the difference in New Delhi and Washington’s approach and engagement with Papua New Guinea and the wider Pacific region was reflected in the outcomes of their visit. Secretary Blinken, substituting for President Joe Biden who had to call off his visit to PNG at the last minute owing to the domestic debt ceiling crisis, signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement to “improve the capacity of the PNG Defence Force (PNGDF), and increase stability and security in the region.”

India’s Outreach

As opposed to this expected muscular approach, India announced a development-oriented 12-step ‘Action Plan to Strengthen India-Pacific Island Partnership at the third summit meeting of the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC). The Action Plan includes a project in each of the Pacific islands countries to develop the small and medium enterprises sector. Knowing well the needs of the islanders, there is also a lot of focus on quick impact projects in the health sector in the Action Plan. A super-speciality cardiology hospital in Fiji for people in the region, sea ambulances and dialysis units for each of the 14 PICs and a plan to make available high-quality generic medicines to all is also on the anvil. Desalination units in each of these small nations have also been assured by India in the Action Plan, among other things.

The people-centric approach should stand India in good stead in the southern Pacific region. This benign, demand-driven approach has been adopted by India in its immediate and extended neighbourhood as well to counter China’s hegemonic ambitions. It was reflected in PM Modi’s speech at the FIPIC Summit wherein he assured the nations that India respects their priorities and is proud to be their development partner. Announcing other projects for the PICs, he said they are “not small island states, but large ocean countries” while describing India as their “reliable partner”. The PM also reiterated the need for a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific.

India’s efforts to forge closer relations with the PICs are of fairly recent origin. Their remoteness, perhaps, was one reason for India’s lack of interest in engaging with them. However, realising the necessity to impart a fresh impetus, India launched FIPIC in 2014. Its first summit was held in Fiji, a country with whom its ties go back a long way. Nearly one-third of Fiji’s population is of Indian origin, with their forefathers landing in Fiji as indentured plantation workers in the late 19th century. PNG, too, has a sizable Indian diaspora. Apart from tapping deeper into this connection, India also needs to lend a greater thrust to trade and investment links with countries other than its traditional trading partners, Fiji and PNG, in the southern Pacific. The region, after all, is rich in natural gas, precious minerals and marine resources. India could also explore lending assistance to these countries in the agriculture sector and be a partner in their efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change.

That the PICs are seen as a vital element of the larger Indo-Pacific also found reflection in the joint statement issued upon the conclusion of the third in-person Quad leaders’ summit in Hiroshima. Devoting two paragraphs to them, the statement said “Quad leaders will listen to and be guided at every step by Pacific priorities, including climate action, ocean health, resilient infrastructure, maritime security and financial integrity.” India has also done well in becoming an observer in the Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative, which has the US, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the UK working together to address the priorities of PICs.

China’s Growing Footprints 

But even as their strategic interests converge and the Quad and Indo-Pacific construct seek to contain China’s expansionism in the southern Pacific, a lot more energy and resources will be required. China began making steady inroads in these nations long before the rest of the world woke up. Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited the PICs twice – in 2014 and 2018. In 2022, then Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi went on a 10-day, eight-nation swing through the PICs. Though the minister failed to get them on board a sweeping regional pact on security and development, Beijing is unlikely to give up its efforts to build inroads in the region.

President Biden, on the other hand, has not been able to make it to these countries despite his administration claiming solidarity with them. China has also got 10 PICs on board its Belt and Road Initiative, while also inking a controversial security pact with the archipelago of Solomon Islands, fuelling fears that this will enable Beijing to set up a naval base there. Clearly, the US-led western countries as well as other friendly countries like India cannot afford to slacken their pace in this new unfolding Great Game.

Parul Chandra is a New Delhi-based senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.