SP-INC weaker than 2019 SP-BSP-RLD alliance, but BJP’s 2024 target of 80/80 in UP gets tougher

Akhilesh Yadav (left) and Rahul Gandhi.

The finalisation of the seat-sharing pact in Uttar Pradesh is a major relief to the opposition INDIA bloc. The state with its 80 seats holds the keys to power in 2024.

After a series of seat sharing talks failures in West Bengal and Punjab, and the exit of JD(U), the optics were looking very bad for the united opposition and it appeared to be in complete disarray.

Though Congress party’s presence is reduced largely to two seats in UP – RaeBareli and Amethi, it spoiled the chances of the SP-BSP alliance in 10 seats in 2019 elections.

The SP is now likely to contest 62, while the Congress gets 17, and Azad Samaj Party one seat. The writer had in a piece in January for Moneycontrol
opined 12-16 seats as a good deal for Congress based on its strength.

If not for the success of the Congress-SP seat-sharing talks, the positive momentum generated after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir and the exit of the RLD appeared to have given a free pass to BJP/NDA to sweep the state and win all the 80 seats.

2019 Mahagathbandhan Was Stronger

The 2019 alliance of BSP, SP, RLD was in fact a much stronger alliance compared to the current SP-INC-Chandrasekhar Azad pact. The 2019 MGB catered to a rainbow coalition of Muslims, Yadavs, Jats, Dalits and a section of lower OBCs. Now the Jats and the Dalit-lower OBC vote is missing.

Chandrasekhar has still to prove that he enjoys the support of the majority of the SC community, with the Jatavs largely still with Maywati’s BSP. His party Azad Samaj Party contested on 111 seats and bagged just 0.1 percent vote share in the 2022 state elections.

The exit of the Jayant Chaudhary-led RLD has dealt a blow to the INDIA bloc especially in Western UP where Jats influence the outcome of elections. The blow will have a pronounced effect because he has joined the BJP-led NDA.

With BSP likely to contest on all the 80 seats, the contest will be triangular in many seats. Though BSP has lost considerable vote share in 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections (from 22 percent in 2017 to 13 percent in 2022), it does enjoy majority support (62 percent as per Axis My India) of the Jatavs who account for 12 percent of the population.

Mayawati contesting as the third force would lead to a split of the opposition vote and in turn help the BJP. In the 2022 state elections, the gap between BJP and SP was 9 percentage points, when BSP received 13 percent vote share.

Though it will be difficult for her to retain this vote share in an increasingly bipolar contest, she could still damage INDIA bloc’s prospects if she is able to wean away a section of minority community votes like in the Azamgarh Lok Sabha bypoll in June 2022 despite the humiliating loss just a few months before, in the March 2022 state elections.

The previous experiment of the SP-INC alliance in the state elections 2017 was disastrous, and is too recent in public memory to forget. There are question marks about Congress party’s ability to transfer votes to its alliance partners. Further it has a poor strike rate and a history of pulling down alliance prospects like in Bihar (2020), Tamil Nadu (2021) and UP (2017).

Post-poll surveys showed that in 2019, of the 6 percent vote share of Congress 3 percent was accounted for by support from Muslims and Yadavs. Other 3 percent was from Jatavs, Non Yadav OBCs and Upper Castes. While the M-Y votes could transfer, there are doubts about the transferability of the other caste groups.

Akhilesh No Tejashwi, BJNY No Votecatcher

The Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi jodi and leadership has not worked in the past in UP in 2017. Akhilesh doesn’t have the same appeal that Tejashwi in neighbouring Bihar enjoys amongst youth, nor has he been able to expand the SP’s vote share beyond the M-Y voters.

On the other hand, while Rahul is spending a lot of days in UP and drawing crowds, the conversion into votes remains a question. His caste census pitch and questioning PM Modi’s OBC roots may backfire in a state where OBCs hold the keys to power.

At a time when the alliance has a narrow social base and limited caste appeal, it needs to chalk out a common minimum programme to draw the caste neutral voters. Here there has not been much headway from the INDIA bloc, as they have been busy highlighting issues but not coming up with solutions.

That too would not be easy, as they would need to build credibility amongst the voters that they would solve their problems, and in a better manner than the BJP has done since 2014. This is one of the problems which Akhilesh faced in his 2022 bid to dislodge Yogi Adityanath.

Something is better than nothing. A lot is not expected from the alliance and it doesn't change the scene in UP significantly. The alliance, if it is able to seamlessly transfer votes, could succeed in stopping BJP from completing a clean sweep in UP.

The coming weeks will give us a clearer idea of how the alliance is working on the ground.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.