INDIA Bloc’s Dilemma: How many seats does Congress deserve in UP?

Congress has not been able to transfer votes to partners in the past, UP 2017 state elections being a perfect example.

INDIA bloc’s seat sharing discussions have entered a crucial phase. All eyes are on crucial Uttar Pradesh which sends the maximum MPs to Lok Sabha. BJP has been winning big with 20-25 percent of its overall tally coming from UP and is aiming to improve its 2019 tally riding on the Ram-maya environment in the state.

Congress has demanded 20 seats in UP with SP terming it as unreasonable. The grand old party has weakened considerably over the last three decades in UP, winning just one seat in 2019, and even Rahul Gandhi losing his family bastion Amethi.

Rationale for INC’s 20 Seats

The party had surprisingly won 21 seats in UP in 2009 which it is using as a benchmark. In terms of strength, SP too, is a pale shadow of its past with just five MPs in 2019. The SP plus RLD vote share (19.8 percent) was thrice that of INC (6.4 percent) in 2019, which warrants a 3:1 division of seats.

The Math, SP’s Concerns

SP was ranked first and second on 36 seats, RLD three seats and INC four seats. By principles of natural justice these parties have a claim on these seats. This leaves 37 seats which BSP contested in 2019 which needs to be suitably distributed.

Read | Lok Sabha Election 2024: Congress-AAP deal in limbo over 20 seats in Delhi and Punjab

In the 2019 general elections, Congress spoiled the chances of MGB candidates in 10 seats - Badaun, Barabanki, Banda, Basti, Chandauli, Machchli Sahar, Dhaurahra, Meerut, Sant Kabir Nagar and Sultanpur.

SP’s fear is that Congress party which doesn’t enjoy a good strike rate like in Bihar (2020), Tamil Nadu (2021), would pull down INDIA bloc’s prospects if it contests on too many seats to satisfy its ego of being a national party.

Additionally, Congress has not been able to transfer votes to partners in the past, UP 2017 state elections being a perfect example.

INC’s Rightful Demand

The 2014 elections depict the individual strength of parties as all of them contested independently. Congress party won two, was runner up on six and second runner up on five seats, one of which was won by the SP. By this logic it should get 12 seats.

Also read | Lok Sabha Polls: Congress, SP to hold second round of seat-sharing talks today

There are eight seats - Amethi, Kanpur, Rae Bareli, Fatehpur Sikri, Bara Banki, Khushi Nagar, Ghazuabad, Lucknow - where the party was first/second twice in the last three polls. Additionally, there are eight seats which BSP contested in 2019 where Congress has a decent presence. By this logic it can get to contest 16 seats.

The party has a rightful claim on 12-16 seats, 20 is a tad high. In alliances, give-and-take is the norm. And seat sharing in UP is fast becoming a game of who blinks first!

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.