Robo-soldiers across the Himalayas

If China moves early and proliferates robotic soldiering business as the ‘lead sector’, it should accelerate its rise as a military power.

Recently, 21 robots participated in a Beijing half-marathon. From a layman’s perspective, it was an amusing spectacle since many humanoid robots were running along (albeit slow) with men and women, perhaps for the first time. However, from a military-tech perspective, the race was frightening. Imagine these robots running the same race with automated guns or saluting the Chinese President and Supreme Leader at Tiananmen Square.

China, while displaying the robots at the Beijing half-marathon, was perhaps making a statement about a not too distant future when its robotic soldiers could be attacking a rival country in swarms or droves.

Like many advanced countries, China is also working on a robotic soldier project. It has made successful use of drones, gun-toting robotic dogs and other robots based on artificial intelligence in ‘large numbers. China has more armour suitable for ‘local wars’ and is consequentially more assertive and aggressive towards neighbours.

Race towards ‘intelligentised’ warfare

Robotic soldiers would be the logical culmination of Chinese drive towards ‘intelligentised warfare’. Last year, President Xi Jinping, while visiting a humanoid robot expo, called for mass production of these first generation robots by 2025. At the Abu Dhabi IDEX 2025 Exhibition this February, China displayed a humanoid capable of undertaking combat functions in future wars. Unitree’s G1 humanoid is already being tested for personal security operations and could well be China’s first generation robotic soldier capable of handling basic combat functions.

From a Chinese perspective, robotic soldiering project provides a strategic opportunity to fight ‘local wars’ (perhaps with Taiwan and a few others) in tandem with drones and other information-age weapons. The Chinese robotic dogs are already climbing rough terrain and using automated guns in all directions. So far, no country has actually moved beyond experimental stage and deployed robotic soldiers at mass level.

Few years ago, the UK had indeed come out with ambitious public policy declarations of converting around one-third of their armed forces with robotic soldiers by 2030 – a proposition that is impossible now due to the short time-span left. In July 2024, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff predicted that in ‘ten to fifteen years, 25 percent to one-third of the US military would be robotic soldiers. If China moves early and proliferates robotic soldiering business as the ‘lead sector’, it should accelerate its rise as a military power.

Why China has advantages in ushering in robot soldiering

Many factors facilitate China’s ambition.

First, China has a very high robot density in manufacturing industry. According to statistics released by the International Federation of Robotics (2024), China has a robot density of 470 against 295 for the US and 162 for the world for every 10,000 employees in 2023. China has also been the world’s largest industrial robot market since 2013 and accounts for 51 per cent of total robotic installations. All this was possible due to the 2015 ‘made in China 2025 (now discarded)’ policy emphasis on domestic production of robots in various categories. Further, China’s Fourteenth Five Year Plan (2021-25) had specific target to convert China into a global leader in robotic technology, manufacturing and automation by 2025.

Second, there are many components of artificial intelligence in particular and technology in general where China is giving the Americans a run for the money. As Nigel Inkster has affirmed in his recent book (The Great Decoupling: China, America and the Struggle for Technological Supremacy, 2023), “technology is now at the heart of a contest between the US and China for a global pre-eminence which is likely to shape the global geo-political landscape for the first half of the twenty-first century”. While the US has a better information-technology skill infrastructure, China is leaping far ahead in robotic innovation, industrial production and usage.

Third, unlike many advanced countries, China has robust institutional arrangements for dual use of technological innovations in civil or military field. As the US Department of Defence annual report on ‘military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China (December 2024)’ shows that China has an institutionalised Military – Civil Fusion (MCF) Development Strategy that includes objectives to develop and acquire advanced dual use technology for military purposes wherein robotics is a key focus sector. MCF has indeed facilitated private sector participation in robotic production and usage in a big way.

Challenges, however, remain in introducing robotic soldiering

There are limits, though, about China’s technological foresight claims on robotic soldiering. For example, how would China deploy robotic soldiers in large numbers against rivals sharing rough frontiers? That would require continuous design improvement over numerous generations of robotic soldiers. Therefore, at least, in short term, China may not be able to use robotic soldiers as ‘strategic substitute’ in warfare activities.

Additionally, the political economy of robotic soldiering is yet to affirm cost-worthiness. Robotic soldiers can become sustainable in future only if production and maintenance cost are affordable vis-à-vis human soldiers. Their life cycle costing would need detailed evaluation vis-à-vis soldiers’ salaries and pensions (along with other accruals and benefits).

Future of soldiering profile

From perceptional technology, robotic soldiering would metamorphose into actual technology (and product) in future. Wars in the next 15-20 years would have a healthy mix of robotic soldiers undertaking the combat business on ground and supplementing human soldiering in multiple ways. The interregnum would be sufficient for countries like China to play experimentation game in robotics and make a complete ‘combat soldier’ out of the robots. Instead of the ‘million men embarrassment’ in mid-1990s during the Taiwan crisis, China may be capable of packing off robotic soldiers swarming towards rival forces in near future.

The Beijing half-marathon was, therefore, about China’s leapfrog advances in using disruptive technological revolution for military purposes. We in India, therefore, need to note the fast-changing soldiering profile beyond the Himalayas, take informed decisions in the domestic ‘boots vs technology’ debate and facilitate a robust military-tech complex for pushing India’s own fledgling robotic soldiering project to its logical milestone.

The author is in the Indian Defence Accounts Service. Views are personal and do not the stance of this publication.