Politics | Why Congress in Madhya Pradesh is facing uncertainty

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Rajeev Sharma 

Madhya Pradesh politics is in a tailspin. The 15-month-old Congress government led by Chief Minister Kamal Nath is facing an existential crisis. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — the two principal political players in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly whose strength is currently down to 228 because of death of two sitting MLAs — have accused each other of poaching MLAs.

This political uncertainty is set to continue till March 26. On March 26, three Rajya Sabha seats from the state come up for elections. In all likelihood, the current political uncertainty could have been triggered because of the election to these three seats.

On March 3, the Congress charged the BJP of ‘abducting’ 10 MLAs from the ruling coalition and keeping them in safe houses in Haryana and Karnataka. Of these 10, four Congress MLAs were ‘rescued’ from a Gurugram plush hotel the same night, largely due to the efforts of Congress veteran and former MP CM Digvijaya Singh. The survival of Kamal Nath’s government is important for the former CM because his son Jaivardhan Singh is Cabinet Minister of Urban Development and Housing in state government.

In Congress’ faction-ridden state unit Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are on one side while Congress General Secretary Jyotiraditya Scindia is on the other. The former CM and Scindia are also locked in the fight for the March 26 elections.

Reports suggest that four MLAs (three from the Congress and one independent) might be lodged in villas in Karnataka, and the Congress is trying to ‘rescue’ them. At the same time the grand old party is trying to influence three MLAs from the BJP: Narayan Tripathi, Sharad Kol and Sanjay Pathak, are the three who have allegedly met Nath.

Speculations are rife that these three MLAs might resign and join the Congress to seek a re-election — similar instances were seen in Karnataka not so long ago where more than a dozen Congress-JDS MLAs resigned and joined the BJP.

The Nath government has exuded confidence that the three Congress MLAs and an independent legislator, allegedly in Karnataka, will return soon. Of these four ‘missing’ MLAs, the Congress has been able to establish contact with the independent MLA, Surendra Singh Shera, and not with the three other Congress MLAs — Bisahulal Singh, Hardeep Singh Dung and Raghuraj Kansan. Dung has sent in his resignation but the assembly Speaker NP Prajapati has refused to accept it saying that it has no meaning until he has a conversation with him.

Digvijaya Singh has accused state BJP leaders Sanjay Pathak and Vishwas Sarang of attempting to topple the state government which has 120 MLAs, four over the majority mark. The BJP has 107 MLAs, just seven behind the Congress tally. This narrow margin explains the current political goings on.

Digvijaya Singh put things in perspective when he said: “What we are seeing is not an operation lotus but operation moneybag of the BJP. The reason behind what they are doing is the ongoing investigation in e-tendering and other scams and the investigating agencies tightening their grip on them.”

In the December 2018 assembly polls the Congress won 114 seats and formed the government with the backing of 121 MLAs, this included the support of four independent MLAs, two BSP and one SP MLA.

There are three Rajya Sabha seats opening up for MP, and both the Congress and the BJP are eyeing to win two of the three seats. As of now the Congress is comfortably placed to win two seats, presuming that it keeps its flock intact. The problem is in what order of preference the Congress will be fielding its two candidates — Digvijaya Singh and Scindia or Scindia and Singh?

This uncertainty at the state level, in many ways, has its reflection at the national level as well. Digvijaya Singh is close to former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, while Scindia is close to Congress’ acting President Sonia Gandhi’s close aide Ahmed Patel. The Congress can win both the seats from MP if it puts Scindia’s name first in the preference, followed by Digvijaya Singh’s name. If Singh’s name is put first, Scindia’s chances become bleak and the party will have to be content with only one seat.

It is now for the party high command to decide and we’ll have to wait and see the results on March 26.

Rajeev Sharma is a political analyst. Twitter: @Kishkindha. Views are personal.