Opposition Unity: AAP and Congress cannot sustain an alliance, whatever the formula

With both AAP and Congress competing for the same set of states and voters, the antagonism between the two parties is on a higher plane than the other players in the alliance talks.

Last week, the first meeting of the grand opposition at Patna reportedly saw heated exchanges between Aam Aadmi Party national convenor Arvind Kejriwal and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge over opposing the Centre's ordinance usurping the Delhi government's powers.

Following the meeting, Kejriwal was a notable absence at the subsequent press conference. The opening act has just commenced. And already two of the main players in the opposition line-up – AAP and Congress – are experiencing fallouts.

Kejriwal’s Patna Blunder

Kejriwal failed to gauge the gravity of the opposition unity talks and blew out of proportion the issue of Congress support to it in Parliament on the ordinance. Despite their differences, Congress surely recognises the risks of supporting such legislation in Parliament. Since 2014, the grand old party hasn’t supported any such central laws.

The Delhi chief minister has to comprehend that the Congress party, unlike its smaller counterparts, is grappling with the demands of its state units in Punjab, Delhi and Gujarat on the position to be taken over AAP’s troubles with the BJP-ruled central government. Consequently, arriving at a decision may require a considerable amount of time and consultation.

Congress will have to strategise this issue carefully and without hurting the state units. It may even prefer not to make public what its stand will be on the ordinance and instead oppose it in Parliament when put to vote without much ado. Simply coercing the Congress to take a stand in support of AAP has dented Kejriwal’s reputation as a tactician.

AAP Loses Goodwill

As a seasoned politician, Kejriwal must recognise that differences are an inherent aspect of any coalition or alliance. His lack of experience in alliance politics, or a lack of flair in this area, has hindered his ability to build strong bonds with opposition politicians. His disinterest in cultivating these relationships could prove a significant obstacle in his political career, as had happened to Rahul Gandhi.

Kejriwal has to recognise that opposition alliance meetings cannot revolve solely around his demands and priorities. It appears that opposition parties had voiced their discontent regarding Kejriwal's use of pressure tactics at Patna. Kejriwal’s is a unique challenge in the opposition spectrum: He has to prove his credibility and reliability as an alliance partner and his walkout tactics at Patna haven’t endeared him to other parties.

Kejriwal’s willingness to collaborate with opposition parties to challenge the ruling BJP was welcomed by most non-Congress opposition parties. But should AAP remain steadfast in advancing its own political agenda ahead of the opposition's at the unity talks, a significant rift between the party and the opposition coalition is likely to ensue.

Can Congress-AAP Ally?

There are potential benefits for opposition unity from a partnership between Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party. In Punjab, collaboration between the Congress and AAP would be futile, given their direct rivalry. However, both parties stand to benefit from a united front in Delhi and Gujarat.

The Congress Party is unable to challenge BJP on its own strength in Gujarat. A truck with AAP may be helpful as AAP had tremendous curiosity factor in the state in the 2022 elections. Similarly, in Delhi, AAP isn’t pulling as many votes in Lok Sabha elections as it does in assembly polls because voters don’t see it as a national player. Here again, a Congress-AAP truck may help both parties counter the BJP more effectively.

A constructive dialogue characterised by a receptive attitude and a willingness to adapt was needed, not the one-upmanship strategy that Kejriwal adopted in Patna. AAP today is for all purposes the third most important party in India after BJP and Congress, having two state governments. But there are also worries about its future growth prospects.

Condemned To Be Rivals

So it would be prudent for Kejriwal to recognise that the Congress party had, in the opposition unity talks, refrained from targeting him or other parties such as the Trinamool Congress for their actions in states such as Gujarat, Goa, and Tripura that cut into the Congress vote. The display of an accommodative spirit was a big concession by Congress.

In the end, there is no natural alliance between Congress and the AAP. The genesis of the AAP can be traced back to its initial confrontation with the Congress and its cornering of the Congress vote bank in Delhi. Congress is also hurting from the massive defeat in Punjab in 2022 and the loss of its Jalandhar stronghold in the recent Lok Sabha bypolls.

Without a well-crafted strategy that prioritises cooperation, mutual understanding, and a broader perspective on the importance of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a rift between the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress in the opposition coalition appears to be inevitable.

The next meeting at Shimla in July offers Kejriwal a chance to make amends. Having started off on a wrong note, all eyes will be on Kejriwal at Shimla.

Sayantan Ghosh is a professor, researcher, and political columnist . He tweets @sayantan_gh. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.