Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The need to plug gaps in India’s vaccination drive

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Two days ago, India opened up registrations for vaccination for the 18-44 year age group. Despite some glitches, this saw an enthusiastic response. But despite registering, few people were able to get slots for inoculation as the next phase of the vaccination programme goes live tomorrow.

The shortage is dire enough for ministers of some states to issue warnings and advisories.

“Don't queue up outside COVID vaccination centres, everyone will get inoculated with appointment,” Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal appealed to the public.

In Maharashtra, health minister Rajesh Tope said, “Unless Maharashtra gets between 25 lakh and 30 lakh vials, we will not commence vaccination drive for the 18-44 age group. Stock should be sufficient for at least five days to start the vaccination drive." The state, in fact, has closed vaccine centres for three days citing a shortage.

Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy has gone so far as to say that vaccination for the 18-44 year group is unlikely to start before September.

The story is pretty much the same in other states such as Punjab and Madhya Pradesh.

The central government continues to deny that there is a vaccine shortage. Yesterday, Union health minister Harsh Vardhan said the states had about 10 million doses in stock and more are in the pipeline.

The stats are stark: After peaking at nearly 3.6 million doses (seven-day moving average) on April 9, the vaccination drive has flagged. As of April 29, the seven-day moving average was 2.4 million.

Clearly, vaccine supplies need to be raised from the current production of 70 million doses a month. Yes, both Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech have said their capacity will be increased and vaccine imports have been allowed as well. But how states will get vaccine allocation and how it will be distributed (apart from the general criteria disclosed) needs to be made transparent. Having states negotiate directly with manufacturers for imports and competing with each other is only likely to lead to a free-for-all situation, in the words of a former health secretary to the government.

Then, pricing is another issue. After announcing a different price for states and the private sector which has much higher than that for the central government, both local manufacturers have cut it a bit. But is still high enough for the Supreme Court to step in and ask the Centre to look into the pricing issue.

Could India have planned its vaccination strategy better? What are the learnings from the way other nations have done this? Read a detailed piece here.

The fact is that the vaccination programme has become complicated. While opening up vaccines to the private sector, the central government can procure vaccines for all states (as it has done so far) and offer to inoculate anyone coming to a government-run clinic/hospital free of charge. That would have given it more negotiating muscle as well as helped keep prices low.

In any case, unlike Godot, vaccines must eventually arrive. But how quickly they arrive is also crucial. Already, the Maharashtra CM has warned the state machinery to be prepared for a third wave which could start by July-August.

Our independent equity research team has written the following reports today for you:

Hindustan Unilever: Volume-led growth strategy working well

Titan: COVID uncertainty clouds near-term outlook, wait for better entry price

Weekly Tactical Pick – HCL Tech

Bajaj Auto Q4: Long-term outlook positive; trades at reasonable valuation

Syngene: Heavy investment phase makes it a long-term play

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Margin debt and leverage are flashing red, again (Republished from the FT)

Our chartists’ technical calls for the day (Please note these calls are published before the markets open on trading days): Glenmark, Ajanta Pharma, Siemens and Reliance Industries

Join us for the latest episode of Moneycontrol Masterclass in which three of India's top doctors will debunk myths surrounding the second wave of Covid-19. Watch the live telecast at 6PM on Friday, April 30th and grab the chance to ask your questions by logging in to Moneycontrol's website, YouTube and Facebook channels. See you soon!

Ravi Krishnan

Moneycontrol Pro