India’s military options are subject to the larger political message being sent

Any military response to a major terror attack will be shaped by the political message that is being sought to be conveyed by the victim state.

The Pahalgam terror attack on Tuesday (April 22) is a major internal security challenge for India. The manner in which Delhi responds to this dastardly act will be a litmus test for the Modi government and the credibility of its policies related to Kashmir, Pakistan and the abiding scourge of jihadi terrorism.

That the killing was premeditated and carried out with a religious orientation – wherein Hindu men were specifically targeted by a local group (TRF), with affiliation to the Pakistan based LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) adds a new dimension to the virulence of terrorism that will have to be factored in the response matrix.

The gravity of the security challenge is reflected in the fact that PM Narendra Modi who was on a state visit to Saudi Arabia cut short his official trip and returned to India. The Home Minister Amit Shah has rushed to the region and it is evident that this setback is receiving the highest level of political attention.

Social media and TV channels are sizzling with anger and anguish and the more strident voices are advocating a strong Indian military response to the Pahalgam terror killings. The collective rage is understandable and alas, it is being stoked by certain media platforms that are invested in the Islamophobia that has been growing since the 9/11 terror attacks of September 2001. However, a dispassionate review would suggest that the military option is not the most prudent choice and should  not  be executed in an impulsive manner – whatever be the domestic political compulsions.

India carried out a swift military attack in February 2019  - the Balakot strike in response to the Pulwama attack on a BSF convoy and there is a view that Delhi can carry out something similar but in a more lethal manner. India has a range of trans-border military capability options to deliver ordnance that will kill and destroy and these include fighter  aircraft, attack helicopters, drones and SF (special forces) that could be deployed.

Pakistan has drawn its own tactical lessons from Balakot and there are reports that indicate that Rawalpindi is prepared to thwart any such Indian response. The escalation ladder could include India opening another front along the border and a matching response from Pakistan would follow leading to a variation of previous Indo-Pak wars.  Economic blockade from sea and other naval options can also be resorted to in such an escalation pattern. In all likelihood, Rawalpindi will wave the nuclear card and the global community will weigh in to bring both nations to the table.

The more complex political decision will be to identify which targets are to be acquired for the proposed Indian military response. Preliminary reports suggest that the TRF (The Resistance Front ) that was formed after the 2019 bifurcation of the composite state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories and has claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack had local Kashmiri members. Their affiliation with the LeT  (Lashkar-e-Taiba) based in Pakistan provides the state-sponsored linkage but Islamabad has distanced itself from this attack and joined the global chorus in offering condolences.

Any military response to a major terror attack will be shaped by the political message that is being sought to be conveyed by the victim state and in the recent past the US experience after 9/11 in 2001 and the Israeli response to the October 2023 Hamas attack are instructive. A cost-benefit analysis would reveal that the ideology of terrorism cannot be erased by military means alone, though the elimination of suspected terror groups remains a political imperative after a major attack. To that extent, the probability of a Modi military response remains high.

Pahalgam will have to be responded to in a measured and calibrated manner and as the adage goes, revenge is a dish best served cold. In the first instance, the perpetrators of Pahalgam should be identified, apprehended and the cross border linkage established in such a manner that the links to Rawalpindi are irrefutable.  The intelligence lapses that led to Pahalgam must not be swept under the carpet and heads must roll – at the top.

India’s military response is predicated on its composite military capability and the reality that a significant component of the helicopter fleet – the ALH (advanced light helicopter) is grounded for safety reasons tells its own story. The reduction of troops  in J&K due to the Galwan challenge with China and the dilution of boots-on-the ground post-Covid and the Agniveer scheme has placed a heavier than usual burden on the Army in discharging its low  intensity conflict and internal security duties.

Pahalgam is a challenge and it must be met with resolve and integrity across the board to quarantine the ideology of terrorism in Kashmir. Impulsive military responses could be costly and counterproductive in the long run.