OPINION | Comparative look at India and China at a GDP level of $12 trillion

India stands to grow its nominal GDP to $10 trillion in the next decade.

India’s economy has experienced a sharp acceleration in the 2020s. In current prices, GDP rose from ₹236 lakh crore in 2021–22 (post-pandemic) to ₹330.7 lakh crore in 2024–25, compounding at an annual rate of 11.9%. Over the same period, GVA expanded from ₹216.4 to ₹300.2 lakh crore (11.5% CAGR). This momentum is broad-based, but the lead engine is clear: services.

Growth between 2021–22 and 2024–25

The first table shows how each sector grew in both quantum and share terms.

Agriculture GVA: From ₹41 lakh crore to ₹53.9 lakh crore (9.5% CAGR). Its share of GDP in 2024–25 stands at 16.3%. The task is to lift on-farm productivity and allied activities and connect farmers to the market via tech platforms so they can accrue market prices, while enabling surplus labour to transition into higher-productivity urban work.

Industry GVA: From ₹62.5 lakh crore to ₹81.4 lakh crore (9.3% CAGR). The industry sector’s 24.6% share of GDP in 2024–25 reflects steady construction, rising utility demand, and an expanding manufacturing base. However, the growth data of jobs and output under the PLI scheme isn’t being captured adequately with outdated indices. Regardless, industrial growth is definitely shy of India’s economic ambitions and can serve as the fulcrum for job-rich growth with the right policies and investments.

Services GVA: From ₹112.91 to ₹164.9 lakh crore (13.5% CAGR). Services now account for ~49.9% of GDP. These include the trade, hospitality, transport, tourism, broadcasting, financial, real estate, and IT and other professional services sectors. India’s digital public infrastructure, formalising finance, vibrant IT services and GCC ecosystem, and logistics/retail modernisation are powering scale and resilience.

Projecting the 2021–22 to 2024–25 growth rates forward for a decade places India’s 2034–35 GDP at ~₹1,046.3 lakh crore, or $12.3 trillion at ₹85 per US$.

With services’ CAGR stronger than the other sectors, its composition of GDP is estimated to grow to 55.7%, whereas agriculture’s may shrink to 12.8% and industries to 18.9%. India’s tax component is projected to grow to 12.6% of GDP.

India at ~$12 Trillion vs China at ~$12 Trillion

Projecting the 2021–22 to 2024–25 growth rates forward places India’s 2034–35 GDP at ~₹1,026.74 lakh crore, or ~$12.3 trillion at ₹85 per US$. Even if one were to discount this growth by 20% due to various factors, including the rupee-dollar fluctuation, India stands to grow its nominal GDP to $10 trillion in the next decade.

When China's GDP was around $12 trillion (2017), its structure was as follows: industry ~40.5%, services ~51.6%, and agriculture ~7.9%.

China’s GDP data is published as a composition of the three sectors only, with taxes attributed to the sectors. For comparison purposes, in Table 2, India’s estimate of taxes in 2034-35 of $1.55 trillion have been redistributed proportionately between industries and services. The agriculture sector does not contribute to India’s tax base. With this redistribution, India’s estimated $12 trillion GDP in 2034-35 looks like this: services ~65.2%, industry ~22.1%, and agriculture ~12.8%.

Two strategic implications follow:

# India’s $12 trillion will be more services-heavy.A world-class services base—encompassing IT-BPM, tourism, retail, professional and financial services, media and communications, and an expanding domestic demand stack—confers durability, foreign exchange earnings, and innovation spillovers into manufacturing and logistics.

# India must increase industrial density while preserving its edge in services.China’s larger industrial share, at $12 trillion, allowed for vast supply-chain depth, capital goods leadership, and export clout. India needs its own version: job-rich, export-oriented manufacturing scaled through competitive infrastructure, frictionless trade, and reliable power—anchored by indigenous technology gains.

In short, India’s differentiated path should combine services scale with industrial heft—a barbell that delivers growth, quality jobs, and strategic resilience.

Five imperatives to reach $12 trillion in a decade

1. Accelerate urbanisation for productivity: India needs compact, connected cities that multiply output per worker. Priorities: transit-oriented development in Tier-2/3 clusters; worker and rental housing at scale; green buses and metro systems; digitalised single-window clearances with time-bound service guarantees; and stronger municipal finance through property-tax reform, pooled bonds, and ring-fenced user charges.

2. Scale labour-intensive manufacturing in the 300 poorest districts that have surplus labour: The nation must create millions of formal jobs in textiles, apparel, footwear, furniture, toys, food processing, and electronics assembly. Focus on plug-and-play industrial parks with 24/7 power, customs on-site, and “first shipment in 30 days” service standards. Support first-time exporters with wage-linked incentives, export credit, and duty drawback regimes benchmarked to leading export nations.

3. Build indigenous technology and compute capacity: Sovereign capability is a growth multiplier. Invest with intent in semiconductors (fab and ATMP/OSAT), advanced materials, industrial automation and robotics, aerospace and defence platforms, and sovereign compute. Expand standards, testing, and certificationcapacity so that Indian products ship with trust-by-default, opening doors for high-value manufacturing exports. Government must spend ₹30,000-50,000 crore annually on government grants to support private sector R&D.

4. Hard-wire export orientation: Services exports are a durable strength; manufacturing and agricultural exports must catch up. Pick a focused set of wedges—electronics, auto components and EVs, green-tech equipment, chemicals, processed foods—where India can be cost-competitive and trusted. Pursue high-ambition trade arrangements with diversified partners, tune RoDTEPand PLI to value-added targets, and modernise SEZ/DTA rules for seamless movement of goods, data, and capital.

5. Streamline Agriculture for Incomes and Demand: Raise on-farm incomes by connecting them to markets, and free surplus labour for higher-productivity sectors. Shift towards high-value horticulture, dairy, and fisheries; build cold-chain and e-logistics; scale micro-irrigation. The sector must orient towards exports to command global market prices, and aim to increase agricultural exports from roughly $50 billion today to $200 billion by FY35.

Bottom line: India can and should reach a $12 trillion economy at constant currency of ₹85 per US$, in the coming decade. If India holds this cadence, the economy will become more resilient and opportunity‑rich—compounding innovation, anchoring supply chains, and extending mobility for millions. The destination is clear: a services‑led economy with confident industrial heft.