Viju Cherian
On March 26, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) rebel leader and founder of Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) TTV Dhinakaran faced a major setback, which could test his capacity as a key player in the Tamil Nadu elections. The Supreme Court not only refused his plea for granting the ‘Pressure Cooker’ symbol for the AMMK but also made it clear that if any AMMK candidates won the election, he/she would be considered an independent because the AMMK is not a registered political party under Section 29A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
In addition to the loss of the AIADMK’s ‘Two Leaves’ symbol, the probability of losing the ‘Pressure Cooker’ symbol has come as a blow to TTV, as Dhinakaran is commonly referred to. However, there is a sliver of hope for TTV as the court has asked the Election Commission of India (ECI) to allot “any one particular free symbol” to all AMMK candidates.
A common symbol will help the AMMK in smoothening its election campaign strategy, but it is doubtful if this will be of any help in a post-poll scenario. In other words, there is nothing that would stop an AMMK MP or MLA from crossing sides and joining the AIADMK and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).
This weakens TTV’s power as a third force that can upset the two Dravidian giants, the AIADMK and the DMK. TTV’s importance, ever since he was appointed deputy general secretary of the AIADMK on February 15, 2017, has been under constant threat. Between then and now, TTV was arrested and sent to jail for allegedly bribing ECI officials, the AIADMK factions headed by O Panneerselvam and Edappadi K Palaniswami merged and the duo also won bragging rights over the party and its ‘Two Leaves’ symbol.
On April 18, Tamil Nadu will be voting its 39 Lok Sabha representatives and 18 MLAs as well. The bypolls to the 18 seats are crucial for the AIADMK government which requires to win a majority of these seats to stay in power. These 18 seats fell vacant after the Tamil Nadu Assembly speaker disqualified MLAs who swore allegiance to TTV. The rebel leader is confident of winning in these 18 seats but in light of the court judgment, there is no guarantee that the MLAs would stay with him. Since the winning candidates from the AMMK camp will be treated as independents, there is no whip that binds them to toe the AMMK line. This could work to the benefit of either the AIADMK or the DMK, depending on who plays their cards right.
Thus, it has to be seen how TTV will play his cards. A weak AMMK does not guarantee a victory for the AIADMK, because the DMK could benefit from an AIADMK-AMMK clash in the 18 bypoll seats.
That said, it must not be forgotten that TTV is no pushover. Time and again he has proved that he is the David fighting against the Dravidian Goliaths. His spectacular win in the RK Nagar byelections, at a time when he did not have a proper party setup, showed that TTV was not wet behind the ears.
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