Why did Raj Thackeray fail in politics?

Raj Thackeray

Fifteen years is a long enough time for newcomers in politics to establish themselves and grow. However, in the case of Raj Thackeray, it has been the other way around. Thackeray, who already had two decades of political experience, launched his newly established party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), into electoral politics in the 2009 Vidhan Sabha elections. His party won 13 seats, and he was seen as a formidable player who could potentially challenge his cousin's Shiv Sena in the long run. However, election after election, his party’s performance declined, ultimately being reduced to zero seats in the recently concluded Vidhan Sabha polls. The downfall of a political stalwart is a case worth analyzing for political observers.

Vageesh Saraswat, General Secretary of the MNS, opined that a series of strategic missteps backfired. In 2014, Raj Thackeray called for support for Narendra Modi but simultaneously fielded MNS candidates in the Lok Sabha elections. He repeated the same mistake in the recent Vidhan Sabha polls. On the one hand, he claimed that the Mahayuti alliance would form the government with Devendra Fadnavis as Chief Minister, while on the other, he fielded candidates against Mahayuti nominees. “If you’re saying that Mahayuti will win, why would people vote for your candidates? They would rather vote directly for Mahayuti candidates,” another MNS functionary remarked.

Raj Thackeray’s ideological inconsistency also confused voters. From 2009 to 2019, he focused on “sons of the soil” issues. Then, in January 2020, he attempted to reposition himself as a Hindutva leader by adopting a saffron flag and protesting against loudspeakers on mosques. From 2011 to 2018, he supported Narendra Modi. However, in 2019, he turned against Modi, calling him a liar and questioning if he was the “Prime Minister of Gujarat” during his video rallies. Following an eight-hour-long interrogation by the Enforcement Directorate, Thackeray reverted to supporting Modi and even announced unconditional support for him in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Such volatile and inconsistent behavior has not resonated well with voters.

The primary purpose of any political party is to gain power. However, in 2019, Raj Thackeray surprised everyone by announcing that he was contesting elections merely to sit in opposition. The electorate didn’t even grant him that space, and the MNS managed to win just one seat, replicating its performance from 2014.

Whether Raj Thackeray will continue in politics or shift to filmmaking is now a widely discussed question in Maharashtra’s political circles. Some time ago, Thackeray announced plans to produce a biographical film on Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj in two or three parts. Whether he becomes a full-time filmmaker or continues in politics will likely be revealed by his decision to contest the upcoming BMC elections.