What's behind worrying surge in terror attacks in Kashmir: 'Attempt by Pak deep state to ...'

File: Army personnel conduct search operation after a bus carrying pilgrims was ambushed by terrorists, in Reasi (PTI)

October has become a grim milestone in Kashmir’s recent history, as the region, which recorded 12 civilian deaths in 2021, is once again facing terror violence that has claimed nine lives so far this month.

In October, nine people—including seven non-local labourers, an army soldier, and a doctor—have been killed in three separate terror attacks in Kashmir, signalling a resurgence of violence.

On October 20, terrorists targeted a local doctor and six non-local workers from APCO Infratech, who were constructing the strategic Z-Morh tunnel on the Srinagar-Sonamarg highway, marking the largest attack in terms of casualties since the June 9 shooting on a pilgrim bus in Jammu’s Reasi, which resulted in the deaths of seven pilgrims.

The killings come in the wake of the first assembly elections held in over a decade—the first since Jammu & Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 was revoked. National Conference-Congress coalition won the elections, with Omar Abdullah returning as chief minister.

The attacks have also occurred at a time when Kashmir has seen the return of cricket matches, attracting large crowds and featuring former international players, as well as international athletes participating in the Kashmir marathon.

The recent targeted attacks have sparked widespread condemnation from political leaders in J&K, with residents including students also expressing their anger and frustration over the killings.

Security experts suggest that the recent uptick in terror attacks in Kashmir, following a shift in terror activity from the Valley to the Jammu region, is a response to the peace that Pakistan does not want in the Union Territory.

Syed Ata Hasnain, a retired Lieutenant General in the Indian Army, told Moneycontrol that the more normal life is resumed in Kashmir the greater will be Pakistan’s irrelevance and that of the separatists, the ideologues and the terrorists. “The intent of Pakistan and its proxy elements is to prevent normalcy and keep the idea of a separate identity alive in the minds of the people. I see the attacks on civilians, mostly non-local labourers as an attempt by Pakistan’s layered deep state to regain its relevance which has been partially lost in the last five years after Article 370 was rescinded. I also see the latest terror attacks as an opportunity exploited to bring terror back to the Valley and once again make the region the centre of gravity of the proxy war being sponsored by Pakistan.

The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, has claimed responsibility for the attack near the under-construction tunnel in Sonamarg.

Hasnain, a former GOC of 15 Corps in J&K, noted that terrorists consistently focus on surprise attacks, primarily targeting populated and well-secured areas like Anantnag, Baramulla, Srinagar, and Pulwama, despite the visibility of their efforts being highest there. “With funding lower than before, terrorists and proxy elements now exploit less secure peripheral areas. For instance, the recent terror strike near a strategic tunnel resulted in significant casualties, which may necessitate redeployment of security forces to address these vulnerabilities.”

J&K Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha has instructed the police to conduct a security audit of infrastructure projects, establish round-the-clock checkpoints at strategic locations, enhance night patrolling and area dominance, and ensure a robust security and intelligence framework through intensified joint operations with the army and other security agencies to eliminate terrorism.

Former J&K Director General of Police (DGP) K. Rajendra Kumar told Moneycontrol that attacks on infrastructure projects in Kashmir are not new, having occurred previously in 2001 and 2002, resulting in the deaths of engineers and employees involved in such projects. “Terror attacks on developmental initiatives have happened intermittently in J&K, with terrorists attempting to halt progress. For instance, targeting unarmed individuals working on a strategic tunnel demonstrates that they oppose all-weather connectivity between Srinagar and Ladakh, which is crucial for the movement of military personnel to border areas.”

The Z-Morh tunnel, a 6.4-kilometre project connecting the Sonamarg tourist resort—known as the “Land of Gold”—to Kangan town in central Kashmir’s Ganderbal district, is set to enhance connectivity in the region. Located near Gagangir village at an altitude of over 8,500 feet, the tunnel will ensure year-round all-weather connectivity to Sonamarg, along the Sindhu River on the Srinagar-Leh highway. It is also designed to provide quick access for military personnel to the border regions of Ladakh.

Kumar, who was the J&K police chief from 2014 to 2016, explained that with a significant decline in violence and a drop in presence of terrorists in J&K from triple digits to single digits, terrorists are now seeking opportunities to attack soft targets. “The current terror attacks are Pakistan’s response to the peaceful elections in J&K, marked by the absence of election boycotts, shutdowns, and the visit of foreign diplomats to observe the elections. Pakistan seeks to maintain instability in Kashmir, which is why such despicable acts continue. However, we can control infiltration from the borders, prevent indoctrination, and identify vulnerable spots to mitigate future terror attacks.”

According to Hasnain, there is a need to enhance focus on intelligence, especially in areas along the LoC where infiltration attempts have not occurred for several years. “The Ganderbal sub region itself has had large scale anti-terror operations only way back in 2009, and infiltration through the Gurez Valley remains a possibility. Attention should also be given to Gulmarg, where relative peace has been maintained. It is also crucial to prevent the re-establishment of overground worker networks and financial conduits, building on the significant progress made by government agencies since 2017.”

J&K police data reveals that, with a decline in local terrorists, 70 to 80 foreign terrorists are currently active in the region, indicating a shift in the focus of militancy from local individuals to foreign operatives.

Commenting on the recent terror attacks in Kashmir, BJP national spokesperson Shazia Ilmi told Moneycontrol that there are forces seeking to destabilize the situation in J&K and disrupt peace.“The recent attacks are deliberate efforts to undermine harmony in the region, which is troubling. However, security agencies are working to confront the perpetrators.”

When asked about the central government's actions in response to the recent terror attacks, Ilmi said she would look into it and provide further information.

Pravin Sawhney, an Indian defence analyst, told Moneycontrol that the recent surge in violence in J&K has both internal and external dimensions. “J&K, a conflict zone for over 33 years, requires a strong law and order framework under an elected government, including police, paramilitary forces, and the army. The concept of a Unified Command, previously led by the Chief Minister, was intended to ensure control and accountability in J&K’s security matters. In J&K, the CM's priority should be peace and normalcy, not development, as development cannot occur without stability,” he said, citing the recent killings of six labourers in Ganderbal near a development site.

Sawhney suggested that with Pakistan and China controlling parts of J&K, their roles are crucial in the conflict, and violence will persist as long as the Indian government avoids dialogue with Pakistan.

Former J&K CM Mehbooba Mufti also stressed that reconciliation between India and Pakistan is essential to prevent incidents like Ganderbal. “The people of J&K bear the brunt of enmity between the two neighbouring nations, and lasting peace is only achievable through dialogue, as seen during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time.”

Hasnain argued that while Pakistan seeks recognition as a major stakeholder in Kashmir, India aims to deny it that status. "Our longstanding policy is that talks and terror cannot coexist. Pakistan's deep state has factions that favour dialogue and those that promote violence. If India engages one faction while another continues attacks, it complicates matters for the government. Without Pakistan publicly renouncing violence, meaningful engagement remains unlikely.”

Sawhney, a military expert, also claimed that 100-150 infiltrators have entered through Jammu, likely receiving support from within Kashmir, which also contributes to rising terrorist violence. “It's not about the timing of attacks; it's about opportunity, and terrorists will strike whenever they can.”