US waiver may help India absorb Russian oil worth $2.99 billion stranded at sea amid Gulf crisis

US waiver may help India absorb $2.99 billion Russian oil volumes stranded at sea amid Gulf crisis

• India boosts Russian oil imports amid Strait of Hormuz issues
• US grants India a waiver to buy Russian oil stranded at sea
• Russian Urals now priced higher than Brent for first time since 2022

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India could absorb a significant portion of the 6.9 million tonnes of Russian oil worth €2.3 billion  ($2.99 billion) currently stranded at sea, as disruptions to oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz and US waiver for Russian barrels provide Moscow a strategic advantage to find buyers for its oil.

While most of the countries are facing the brunt of disruptions on the Strait of Hormuz, which have led to a 20 percent of world supply and 50 percent of India’s oil imports being threatened, Russia significantly stands to gain with a renewed interest in Russian barrels already out at sea, as per European think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

“The contraction in Gulf countries’ oil flows to Asia provides a strategic advantage to Russia, which had witnessed a significant slowdown in purchases from key buyers after the US OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) sanctions on oil majors in November 2025,” the think tank noted.

At the end of February 2026, approximately 6.9 million tonnes of Russian crude, worth €2.3 billion ($2.99 billion), was out at sea without a known buyer.

The CREA highlighted that the US waiver to India for purchases of Russian crude could see these volumes at sea, which is half the deficit expected to be generated by the loss of volumes from Gulf countries, being taken in by India.

In a latest development, the US has issued a 30-day licence for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea, similar to the waiver issued to India, as a step to stabilise global oil markets.

As a result of oil supplies being limited and aggressive buying of Russian oil by Indian refiners, Russian Urals are now being sold at a premium of $4-$5 per barrel to the benchmark Brent for the first time since 2022 against the discount of $10-$13, prior to the conflict, industry sources said.

Urals crude from Russian ports was being offered for around $76 ⁠per barrel on March 9 on a free on board (FOB) basis, Reuters data ​showed, up from $45 just two weeks ago.

Indian refiners have ramped up purchases of Russian crude, with 20 million barrels already in India. Further 25-30 million barrels of Russian oil is expected to come to India in the remainder of the month, following the recent US waiver, Kpler AIS projection data shows.

Brent crude oil prices were hovering around $100 per barrel on March 13, despite the US waiver for all countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying on March 13 that it will release a record 400 million barrels of oil.

India was the third-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels in February slipping from the second position in January, purchasing €1.8 billion ($2.07 billion) of Russian hydrocarbons in February, as per CREA. Crude oil constituted the largest share at 81 percent (€1.4 billion or $1.61 billion), followed by coal (€223 million or $256.51 million). Oil products (€121 million or $139.18 million) constituted the remainder of India’s imports from Russia.