India may emerge key buyer of Iranian oil after US waiver, resumes Venezuelan imports

India may emerge key buyer of Iranian oil post US waiver, resumes Venezuela oil imports

• US grants 30-day waiver for Iranian oil sales at sea
• Indian refiners may buy Iranian oil after waiver
• India resumes Venezuelan oil imports amid supply diversification

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India is likely to emerge as a major buyer of Iranian crude after a 30-day US sanction waiver allowed purchase of barrels stranded at sea, sources said, adding refiners are willing to resume crude imports after almost seven years.

On March 20, the US issued a 30-day ​waiver for the sale and purchase of ‌Iranian oil at sea to ease price pressure, with the Brent crude jumping almost 55 percent since the start of the US-Israeli war on ​Iran on February 28.

The US waiver allows the sale of Iranian crude and petroleum ​products from March ​20 to April 19, the order issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) under the US treasury department said.

Historically, India has been a major buyer of Iranian crude, importing significant volumes of light and heavy grades due to strong refinery compatibility and favourable commercial terms.

After the US tightened sanctions in 2018, imports ceased from May 2019, with volumes replaced by West Asian, US and other grades.

At peak, Iran accounted for around 11.5 percent of India’s imports, Kpler data shows.

Currently, Iranian crude availability remains elevated, with an estimated 170 million barrels on water, including floating storage and cargoes in transit. Iranian volumes are normally locked for Chinese buyers but Indian refiners are keen to buy the barrels.

“While part of these volumes are committed, a portion remains unsold, representing potential incremental supply if sanctions ease or enforcement weakens. Indian refiners retain the ability to re-integrate these barrels with minimal operational adjustments, supported by prior processing experience and established trading setups,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modelling at Kpler.

Any return, however, will be driven primarily by commercial and geopolitical factors rather than technical constraints, he said.

“Key considerations include the scope and durability of sanctions relief (including on shipping), pricing structure, and the availability of payment, insurance and logistics mechanisms. If these conditions align, a ramp-up in Indian imports of Iranian crude could be significant, similar to the rapid increase observed in Russian crude intake following the easing of Western sanctions,” Ritolia said.

India resumes Venezuelan imports

As the war rage on for a fourth week and the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern, India has begun diversifying its oil supplies with refiners resuming purchases of Venezuelan crude oil after nine months.

Ship tracking data suggests that around 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil could be headed to Indian ports between late March and early April, with another 6-8 million barrels expected through April.

The country last procured Venezuelan oil in May 2025 with volumes ranging at 1.9 million barrels, Kpler data says.

Venezuelan shipments are expected at the Sikka Port in Jamnagar, where crude for Reliance and Bharat Oman Refineries, a subsidiary of Bharat Petroleum Corporation, unloads, Nikhil Dubey, a senior refining analyst at Kpler, said.

“While Venezuelan crude is now arriving in India at a critical moment, especially as refiners look for non-Mideast Gulf alternatives, it’s important to note that these March cargoes were likely secured well before the Strait of Hormuz disruptions,” Ritolia said. “This highlights that the current flows are not purely reactive, but a result of proactive diversification and forward planning.”

Venezuela was a major supplier of crude to India, accounting 6.7 percent of India’s import basket in FY18.

India’s import of Russian oil hit a four-month high of 42.5 million barrels as of March 22, as refiners rushed to buy Urals at sea after the US waiver. The imports stood at 29 million barrels in February.

Disclosure: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.