Uddhav faction seen as 'real Shiv Sena' by majority of Marathi-speaking voters in Mumbai: Survey

Shiv Sena (UBT) president Uddhav Thackeray.

• Twice as many Marathi voters see Uddhav Thackeray's faction as the "real Shiv Sena".
• 52% of Marathi voters want all Shiv Sena factions to reunite before BMC polls
• Civic performance and local issues outweigh party identity for Mumbai voters

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The Uddhav Thackeray faction is seen as the "real Shiv Sena" by twice the number of Marathi-speaking voters in the Mumbai region as compared to the one led by Maharahtra Deputy CM Eknath Shinde, a new survey revealed on Thursday.

The survey findings, released a fortnight ahead of the crucial Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections scheduled on January 15, also points to a strong undercurrent of nostalgia and consolidation sentiment among Marathi-speaking voters.

According to a citywide survey conducted by Ascendia Strategies between December 17 and 24, 52% of 'Marathi Manoos' respondents said they want the three factions of the Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde and Raj Thackeray, to reunite.

However, when asked who they believe represents the "real Shiv Sena", 45% identified the Shiv Sena (UBT), more than double the 22% who backed Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's faction. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) drew negligible support at just 1%, while 24% said they were unsure, pointing to lingering confusion within the Sena's traditional base.

Fractured legitimacy

The findings suggest that while the idea of Sena unity retains emotional resonance among Marathi voters, political legitimacy is not evenly distributed. The Shiv Sena (UBT) appears to enjoy a stronger claim over Bal Thackeray's legacy, even as Shinde's faction continues to wield institutional power through the state government and the BJP-led Mahayuti.

This divergence between emotional preference and political authority could complicate electoral strategies for all Sena factions ahead of the BMC polls, where Marathi voters account for an estimated 35-37% of Mumbai's electorate.

Performance over identity

Despite the prominence of identity politics in Maharashtra, the survey indicates that civic performance outweighs party or caste considerations for Mumbai voters across communities. Among Marathi Manoos respondents, 52% said the work done by their corporator would be the most important factor in deciding their vote, the highest among all demographic groups.

Across the city, potholes and waterlogging (24%), poor sanitation and drinking water (18%), and waste management (12%) emerged as the top civic concerns, highlighting governance over ideology as the central battleground for the BMC election.

Advantage BJP?

The survey also underscores why the BJP remains competitive in Mumbai despite the Sena split. Muslim voters, who make up a crucial bloc in several wards, appeared highly undecided, with 64% saying they were unsure whom they would support in the event of a Thackeray brothers' alliance and the continued breakup of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

At the same time, women voters who form another decisive segment, showed a strong tendency to vote independently (65%) and prioritised safety infrastructure such as CCTV cameras and women's helplines, areas the BJP has aggressively highlighted through its urban governance pitch.

What it means for BMC 2026

Taken together, the findings suggest that a Thackeray reunion alone may not be sufficient to reclaim the BMC, unless it is accompanied by a credible governance narrative and candidate-level performance.

While Shiv Sena (UBT) currently appears better placed to claim the Sena legacy among Marathi voters, the continued division of votes, high undecided segments, and the BJP's organisational strength could still tilt the contest in favour of the ruling alliance.

As the survey notes, the 2026 BMC election may ultimately be less about symbolism and more about who convinces Mumbai voters that they can fix the city's everyday problems.

The elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation is scheduled to be held on January 15 while the results will be declared on January 16.