Senior care market poised to triple in a decade, turning the space into the next big investment idea

Elderly Care

India’s senior care space is beginning to draw serious investor attention, as captured through a recent funding by Morgan Stanley’s India Infrastructure Fund in Chennai-based Athulya Senior Care, highlighting that organised assisted-living and post-acute care are moving from niche services to scalable businesses.

Rising life expectancy, smaller families and growing willingness among seniors to spend on care are creating conditions for a market that could expand several times over in the coming decade.

Athulya, founded by geriatrician Dr Karthik Narayan, has pursued an asset-light and long-lease model (9–15 years), with plans of adding 500–700 beds a year across South and West India while running a clinically heavy operation of 700 nurses and ~150 doctors.

“Seven years back, 80% of our business came from NRI children. Today it’s 50-50 - local seniors are directly choosing and paying,” Narayan told Moneycontrol. Monthly tariffs range from Rs 50,000–1,00,000+, depending on case mix and the level of care.

According to Narayan, the payor mix is evolving - from predominantly NRI children who were footing the bill, to domestic, self-funded seniors using health savings and pensions to access senior care.

“Parents are now putting money aside for their retirement… health insurance and health savings plans are coming into play,” he said. Average revenue per occupied bed (ARPU) has climbed from Rs 35,000 seven years ago to Rs 1 lakh today, reflecting medical inflation and a willingness to pay for quality. Basic assisted living is charged at the lower end while medicalized care costs above Rs 1 lakh per month or above.

The senior care industry holds the promise to be the next sunshine sector, as over 34.7 crore Indians will be aged over 60 by 2050.

According to a PwC-ASLI senior-care report, the market is expected to expand from $10-15 billion today to $30-50 billion within a decade, underpinned by 19,500 people turning 60 every day and life expectancy rising to 70.8 years.

As India’s population ages, traditional care systems are breaking down due to nuclear families and migration, even as life expectancy rises. Longer lifespans bring a surge in chronic conditions like dementia, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, arthritis, and cancer—ailments that demand personalized care. At the same time, a wealthier, tech-savvy senior demographic is expected to fuel demand for organized senior care solutions.

Another report by JLL–ASLI projects senior living capacity to increase five times by 2030 from 20,000 dwelling units to 100,000 units.

Deals Flow

All this is expected to result in more investor interest in businesses like Athulya. According to Rajit Mehta, Chairman of industry body Association of Senior Living India (ASLI) and also MD and CEO of Antara Senior Care, a wholly owned subsidiary of Analjit Singh's Max India, there were around 20 M&A deals ranged Rs 50-200 crore involving both impact and commercial investors in the last 18-24 months.

In addition, companies operating in this space have also announced major expansion plans.

Columbia Pacific Communities (CPC) plans a Rs 200 crore India expansion and merger with KITES Senior Care, combining senior-living operations with medicalized out-of-hospital care. The merged platform will target 2,000 additional units over two years.

Primus Senior Living has announced a Rs 1,500 crore multi-year investment roadmap to build 3,500-10,000 homes via multi-generational communities, and recent projects have reinforced the capex cycle. Primus in October last year raised $20 million in a seed funding round led by General Catalyst, with participation from Zerodha co-founder Nikhil Kamath and Gruhas, the investment firm co-founded by Kamath and Abhijeet Pai of the Puzzolana Group.

Antara Senior Care is looking to invest Rs 125 crore raised through rights issue to expand its operations across three business verticals of residences, assisted care services, and direct-to-consumer platform AGEasy.

Sector at Inflection Point?

The sector still has a lot of challenges to deal with, say investors who are scouting for opportunities.

"Insurance is absolutely critical. And we need the regulator here to step in. Clearly, Ayushman Bharat today supports adults above 70. And we are expecting the regulator to do something along those lines, at least in this area. I think the second is fiscal incentives. There has to be fiscal incentive in the form of land subsidies, tax breaks on income, attractive deductibles," said Chintan Kothari - Partner, Eight Roads Ventures, during a panel session at the recent 6th ASLI Ageing Fest in Mumbai.

Senior care in India straddles two worlds - real estate and healthcare. On one end are senior-living communities which resemble residential projects with added safety, security, and wellness amenities, and on the other hand are assisted-living and care homes, which layer in medical support, nursing, and emergency readiness.

Operators like Athulya Senior Care are leaning toward a hybrid model, combining hospitality-style housing with healthcare services under an asset-light lease structure, while peers such as Antara and Columbia Pacific mix real estate ownership with service delivery. This dual nature - property plus care - has made the sector attractive yet complex for investors, who seek clarity on whether they’re backing a real estate play, a healthcare services business, or an integrated ecosystem.

"It was not clear whether they are a services company where healthcare investors come in or real estate investors are different investors who probably do not have a healthcare expertise. And the companies which were healthcare services companies, who were having a services component, were not making economic sense for us to invest," said Vikash Rathi - Principal - Healthcare Investments, Premji Invest who spoke at the same platform.

Scale is another problem, according to Vikash Rathi. "..when somebody charges Rs 50,000 rupees or Rs 1 lakh per month of senior care, the audience or the target market becomes very, very small, right?"