Sasikala's return, bypoll boycott: AIADMK in a flux as it desperately eyes political reset

Palaniswami-led AIADMK is seeking a reversal of fortunes in Tamil Nadu

The AIADMK's decision to boycott the Vikravandi bye-election in Tamil Nadu is due to a combination of political factors and the stated reasons of “malpractice and irregularities” by the ruling DMK have nothing to do with it.

So soon after the Lok Sabha polls, where it drew a blank, the AIADMK cannot afford another debilitating loss, especially in a constituency where both the DMK, and also the NDA constituent PMK, are strong. The risk of a third place finish is too high to be rejected off hand.

But, more importantly, this is also an olive branch to the BJP and the PMK, an invitation to return to an AIADMK-led front. The AIADMK fared better than the NDA in the general election, but nowhere as well as to give it the confidence in its ability to take on the DMK without help from the BJP and the PMK.

The decision to boycott the bye-election, announced by AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswamy last week, supposedly because the DMK is wont to misuse the official machinery, is actually based on both hope and fear. The hope is that this would pave the way for a realignment in Tamil Nadu with an AIADMK-led front that includes the NDA constituents too, but without the BJP dictating terms. The fear, of course, is that a loss, especially a third place showing, would only weaken it further.

“Using Ministers and their power, they (DMK) will go to any extent to retain the Vikravandi constituency. So, we do not want to field our candidates,” Palaniswamy justified the decision on Sunday. Making way for a possible NDA win in Vikravandi, Palaniswamy, perhaps, also hopes there would be a change of heart in the BJP, if not a change in its state leadership, as he had ruled out realignment with BJP soon after the Lok Sabha results earlier this month.

The DMK and the PMK have already announced their candidates for Vikravandi - S Ramadoss and C Anbumani (PMK vice-president) respectively.

These developments are taking place at a time when there is a renewed push for the reunification of the breakaway AIADMK groups with the parent party. Former MLAs JCD Prabhakar and KC Palanisamy, and former spokesperson, Va. Pugazhendhi, wrote to Palaniswamy, dissident leader O Panneerselvam, Jayalalithaa confidante Sasikala and AMMK leader TTV Dinakaran calling for unity and seeking appointments to meet with them to discuss reunification.

But the AIADMK led by Palaniswamy views this reunification effort as more of a threat. Palaniswamy won the leadership not only after a political battle but also after long-drawn court cases. A return of rebel leaders Sasikala and Panneerselvam will only revive the factionalism in the party.

Ideally, the AIADMK would like to enter the NDA as its leading constituent in Tamil Nadu and keep out both Panneerselvam and Dinakaran, who is part of the Sasikala family.

Palaniswamy, especially, finds it difficult to fathom the BJP's fascination for the Sasikala family that is tainted with corruption. Indeed, the BJP had supported Panneerselvam in his fight against Sasikala, but it keeps the company of both now.

The AIADMK sees the unity efforts as little more than an attempt by sidelined leaders trying to regain relevance. If at all it warms up to the idea of a return of the expelled leaders and dissidents, it would be strictly on its terms.