Political fault lines emerge as Sambhal report flags demographic concerns

Muslims leave after offering namaz at the Shahi Jama Masjid. (Courtesy: PTI photo)

The judicial probe into the November 2024 violence in Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh, has not only traced the immediate triggers behind the clashes but also highlighted a deeper, structural issue: the demographic shifts that are reshaping the district’s communal balance.

The commission, headed by retired Allahabad High Court judge Justice DK Arora, has pointed to systemic administrative lapses during the mosque survey that triggered the violence and underscored how shifting population patterns are fueling mistrust between communities.

The clashes erupted on November 24, 2024, during a mosque survey ordered by local authorities. The violence left several injured, disrupted daily life, and raised questions about the state’s preparedness in handling sensitive exercises. According to the report submitted to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the district administration underestimated the potential for unrest despite Sambhal’s history of communal tension.

The commission observed that intelligence warnings about possible resistance to the survey were ignored. Police deployment was inadequate, and communication between revenue and police officials broke down at crucial moments. These gaps, the report says, created conditions in which “rumour-mongering escalated into mob violence.”

Demographic shifts: A sensitive undercurrent

One of the most striking aspects of the report is its reference to the demographic profile of Sambhal. It notes that the Hindu population has steadily declined over the past decades and now constitutes only about 15 percent of the district’s population, while Muslims form the overwhelming majority.

This decline, the commission suggests, has exacerbated the sense of insecurity among the Hindu minority, making communal incidents sharper and more polarizing. The report stops short of attributing causality but emphasizes that local governance structures must remain sensitive to this reality when designing interventions in Sambhal.

According to the report, several youths from Sambhal were recruited into terror organisations in Pakistan and Afghanistan and later found a place in the top global terrorist lists maintained by the United States. Sources said the commission has made a detailed reference to the presence and expansion of such modules in the district.

The report also states that the idea of "Ghazwa-e-Hind" was being promoted in Sambhal, with Hindu families and their religious places targeted during communal riots. Instances of so-called “love jihad” were cited where Hindu girls were allegedly trapped and converted. The commission noted that during previous governments, some local political figures supported lawlessness and administrations failed to act, allowing minorities with extremist leanings to dominate. Hindus were reportedly harassed under this protection, and incidents such as the six-day forced shutdown of markets during anti-CAA protests highlighted the climate of intimidation.

Records of 15 major riots since Independence showed that radical Muslim groups were given open protection, the report says, while cases from the Hindu side were never filed. As a result, Hindu families were forced to migrate, leaving behind properties and religious sites that were later taken over by miscreants.

The report underlined that some youths from Sambhal were brainwashed and recruited into outfits such as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Tehrik-e-Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Hizbul Mujahideen and ISIS. Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI was also reported to have set up a strong network in the region. The name of Maulana Asim Umar, a Sambhal native who rose to become an Al-Qaeda leader, featured in America’s list of top global terrorists. Others identified in the report include Ahmed Raza alias Shahrukh, Mohammad Asif, Maulana Aseem and Zafar Masood.

The findings mirror concerns raised by several civil society groups that fault lines in smaller towns are often ignored until they flare up in violent ways. “The state machinery treats these as law-and-order issues, whereas they are fundamentally about trust, representation, and perception of fairness,” said R N Mishra, a retired bureaucrat familiar with communal management in western Uttar Pradesh.

Political ramifications

The demographic reality outlined in the report will have political implications as well. Sambhal, a traditional stronghold of the Samajwadi Party, is often seen as a microcosm of western Uttar Pradesh’s communal politics. With the Hindu population shrinking, the BJP faces a limited electoral base here, while the SP and other regional parties leverage Muslim consolidation.

The reaction of the political parties is on the expected lines. The BJP welcomed the report, calling it “a vindication of long-standing concerns about Sambhal.” A party spokesperson said the findings exposed how previous governments allowed extremist groups to gain a foothold, and urged strict action against those named in the report.

The Samajwadi Party, however, dismissed the commission’s findings as “politically motivated.” Rajendra Chaudhry, SP national spokesman said the ruling BJP was attempting to “communalise” Sambhal’s situation for electoral gains, and demanded that the government focus on development and employment in the district.

The Congress took a cautious line, saying the report raised “serious issues that need impartial scrutiny.” Senior party leader Maroof Khan demanded that any follow-up action must be carried out within the constitutional framework and without targeting any community.

Rajendra Kumat, a political analyst said that with by-elections and the 2027 assembly polls in the backdrop, the findings are likely to sharpen political divides, with the ruling party projecting itself as tough on extremism and the opposition accusing it of exploiting communal fault.

Another analyst, Shabnam Qureshi, noted that the timing of the report matters as much as its findings. “Uttar Pradesh is entering a high-stakes electoral cycle. The projection of Sambhal as a site of Hindu decline dovetails with the BJP’s broader narrative of safeguarding cultural identity. But if mishandled, it could also push Muslims into consolidating behind the opposition.”

The larger picture

The Sambhal report underscores a lesson for Uttar Pradesh and India at large: communal harmony cannot be managed solely through police action. It requires proactive trust-building, equitable development, and sensitive handling of demographic realities.

As political commentator Vivek Tripathi put it: “The Sambhal report will be read in two ways—by administrators as a cautionary tale of lapses, and by politicians as an opportunity to sharpen their electoral messaging. The danger is that the latter may overshadow the former.”

As Justice Arora’s panel has noted, “Sambhal is a reminder that demographic shifts, if not accompanied by inclusive governance, can become a tinderbox.”

The challenge for policymakers now is to translate this reminder into sustained efforts at the ground level—before Sambhal becomes a template for future conflicts elsewhere.