Next Maharashtra CM: Eknath Shinde’s diminished bargaining power

While the newly elected MLAs chose Eknath Shinde as their legislative party leader on Sunday, they also insisted that he should continue as Chief Minister.

Eknath Shinde surprised everyone in June 2022 by becoming Maharashtra's Chief Minister with just forty Shiv Sena MLAs, who rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray. The largest alliance partner, the BJP, had 105 seats—more than double the number of MLAs Shinde had. However, after the recent Vidhan Sabha election results, political pundits believe Shinde's bargaining power has diminished, making it unlikely he will retain the top job.

While the newly elected MLAs chose Shinde as their legislative party leader on Sunday, they also insisted that he should continue as Chief Minister. Their argument is that the people of Maharashtra gave such a sweeping mandate to the Mahayuti alliance when Shinde was the face of the government. They credit Shinde with the game-changing "Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana," claiming it was his brainchild. The scheme’s name underscores Shinde’s role by including the prefix "Mukhyamantri." On Sunday, Shinde sent a subtle message to the BJP by inviting over one thousand women to his official residence, Varsha. It was claimed that the women met Shinde to "congratulate and thank him." Shinde's camp is lobbying for his continuation as CM, citing the example of Bihar, where the BJP supported Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister despite JD(U) having far fewer seats than the BJP.

Shiv Sena workers also claim they adhered to the "alliance dharma" by sincerely campaigning for BJP candidates.

On the other hand, BJP leadership and cadres find it imprudent to forfeit the Chief Minister's seat, given their thumping majority. The BJP has won more than twice the number of seats as Shinde’s Sena (57). BJP leaders argue that the situation in June 2022 was different when Shinde became Chief Minister despite having fewer seats. At that time, the BJP "rewarded" Shinde for leading a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray and needed a Maratha face to lead the government. The BJP anticipated potential challenges from Maratha quota activists during the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections and viewed Shinde as a strong Maratha leader who could address such issues. However, this strategy did not pay off in the Lok Sabha elections, as the BJP faced losses due to the Maratha agitation.

Numerically, the BJP, with 132 seats, can form the government without Shiv Sena's support. Ajit Pawar's NCP, with 41 seats, has already expressed willingness to support a BJP Chief Minister. In this scenario, if the BJP insists on the Chief Minister's post, Shinde would have no option but to accept the Deputy Chief Minister's position. BJP cadres across Maharashtra have already put up banners congratulating Devendra Fadnavis as the next Chief Minister. However, the final decision is likely to be made by the BJP central leadership by Tuesday.