Monsoon rains to arrive early, brightening outlook for crops

Nearly half of India's farmland, without any irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow a number of crops

Monsoon rains are expected to hit India's southern coast on May 27, five days earlier than usual, marking the earliest arrival in at least five years, the weather office said, raising hopes for bumper harvests of crops such as rice, corn, and soybean.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country's $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and recharge aquifers and reservoirs. Nearly half of India's farmland, without any irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow a number of crops.

Forecasts of early and abundant monsoon rains are expected to alleviate concerns about potential risks to food supplies amid the current military conflict between India, the world's most populous nation, and its neighbour Pakistan.

Summer rains usually begin to lash the southernmost coasts of Kerala state around June 1 and spread across the whole country by mid-July, triggering the planting of crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27, with a model error of plus/minus four days, the India Meteorological Department said on Saturday.

Last year, the monsoon reached the coast of Kerala on May 30, and overall summer rains were the highest since 2020, helping the country recover from a drought of 2023.

The India Meteorological Department last month forecast above-average monsoon rains for the second straight year in 2025.

The department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

Early monsoon rains will encourage farmers in India, the world's largest rice exporter, to start planting earlier. Reuters reported last week that a bumper crop would limit any rebound in global rice prices this year.