Khaleda Zia sees an opening as doors close on Hasina: Why it may not be good news for India

The 78-year-old former Prime Minister, who served two terms in office, was in 2018 convicted of corruption charges and jailed for 17 years (Image: Reuters)

Bangladesh's first woman Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has been released from house arrest, a day after the ousting of her political rival Sheikh Hasina. Zia, chief of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was freed on the orders of Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin.

The 78-year-old former Prime Minister, who served two terms in office, was in 2018 convicted of corruption charges and jailed for 17 years. Both Hasina and Zia have dominated Bangladesh since 1991 for a majority part and played a crucial role in shaping up the political landscape.

With Hasina fleeing from Bangladesh after weeks of protests by students against government job quotas and demands for her resignation, the spotlight has naturally moves to Khaleda Zia, who's release comes at a crucial time as Bangladesh has been pushed into a big political turmoil.

Under Sheikh Hasina's leadership as Prime Minister, Bangladesh maintained a close and strategic partnership with India, fostering cooperation between the two neighboring nations. Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, and India is the second-largest trade partner for Bangladesh in Asia.

The countries have been major trade partners and in FY 2023-24, the total trade between India and Bangladesh was Rs 1,35,285 crore, with India holding a significant trade surplus.

Hasina had described her India visit in June as “very fruitful” and said that it opened new avenues of cooperation for the socioeconomic development of the people of the two countries, the Dhaka Tribune newspaper reported.

India and Bangladesh signed 10 agreements to boost ties in several key sectors, including in the maritime sphere and blue economy. Seven new and three renewed pacts were signed to further consolidate the ever-growing relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka.

India's strong backing of Hasina over the last 15 years has resulted in limited engagement with Bangladesh's opposition parties including Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Moreover, with India giving a temporary refuge to Hasina following the outrage that led to her resignation, India finds itself in a difficult diplomatic situation.

More than Hasina’s fall, it is the takeover of Bangladesh by radicals and Islamists which worries India, says Manish Dabhade of the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), according to a report by FirstPost.

“The radicals and Islamists of Opposition leader Khaleda Zia’s BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami are the main problems for India. They had hijacked the Bangladesh protests and any future government which includes them is set to be problematic for India as they are fundamentally pro-China and pro-Pakistan. They had led ‘India Out’ campaigns in the past, accusing Sheikh Hasina of being an Indian stooge,” says Dabhade, an Associate Professor at the JNU’s Centre for International Politics, Organisation & Disarmament at JNU.

Harsh Vardhan Shringla, former Foreign Secretary of India who also served as envoy to Bangladesh, also said that an unstable Bangladesh can add to instability in parts of India.

#WATCH | Delhi: On political crisis in Bangladesh and its possible impact on India, former Foreign Secretary and ex-Ambassador to Bangladesh, Harsh Vardhan Shringla says, "...An unstable Bangladesh can add to instability in parts of our country, which we do not want to see. So, a… pic.twitter.com/yzMXHTCJnD

— ANI (@ANI) August 5, 2024

Earlier today, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar briefed the MPs on former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's "very short notice" request to come to India "for the moment". Reading out a statement both in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, Jaishankar said India naturally remains deeply concerned till law and order is visibly restored in the neighbouring country and that it has instructed its border guarding forces to be exceptionally alert in view of the complex and still evolving situation there.

"We are in close and continuous touch with the Indian community in Bangladesh through our diplomatic missions. There are an estimated 19,000 Indian nationals there, of which about 9,000 are students. The bulk of the students, however, have already returned to India in the month of July," the external affairs minister said.