Jharkhand Assembly Election: How tribal votes can change the outcome and what it means for BJP

Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das during the campaign (Image: Twitter/@dasraghubar)

No chief minister in Jharkhand before incumbent Raghubar Das had completed their tenure in office. Political stability in the state, carved out of Bihar in 2000, was so low that, at times, two-three governments assumed power within the tenure of a single Legislative Assembly.

Take the case of what happened during the third Assembly between 2009 and 2014. Three governments were in office during the period.

First, it was Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Shibu Soren’s government that lasted under six months. This was followed by President’s Rule and a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government led by Arjun Munda. This government lasted under two and a half years. Finally, after another segment of President’s Rule, Soren’s son Hemant formed a government that lasted till the end of the Assembly’s tenure in 2014.

Against this backdrop, Das completing five years in office is a significant milestone for the state’s politics.

However, given the state’s voting track record, it can be said that the ruling BJP is facing anti-incumbency.

Some of the factors that led to BJP’s under par electoral performance in recent Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls, also apply to this state. However, at the core of BJP’s campaign – just like all political parties in the state — is to win the tribal votes.

Quest for tribal votes

The tribal community accounts for about 26 percent of the state’s population. This makes them highly influential in the state’s politics. Interestingly, Das is Jharkhand’s first non-tribal chief minister.

Jharkhand ranks sixth and 10th in terms of the Scheduled Tribe (ST) population and the percentage share of ST population to the state’s total population, respectively. The state has thirty Scheduled Tribes.

With over 91 percent of them residing in villages, the Scheduled Tribes are primarily rural. Gumla district has the highest proportion of STs (68.4 percent).

Also read: Jharkhand’s 10 bellwether seats — whoever wins these, wins the polls

Tribals make up over half of the total population in Lohardaga and West Singhbhum districts. In Ranchi district, which houses the capital city, the tribal population is around 41 percent. Pakaur district has 44.6 percent tribal population.

These proportions make tribals politically influential and may impact outcomes in constituencies there. There are 19 Assembly constituencies in the aforementioned districts alone. Of these, 15 are reserved for STs. Of these 19, BJP had won six and its ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) two, in 2014.

However, their influence also spills over to many more constituencies. There are other pockets of the state — such as Dumka district — where there is significant tribal population. In fact, the state has 28 seats reserved for STs.

Das-led BJP is reportedly having a tough time getting these votes this time.

Also read: The challenges facing chief minister Raghubar Das

At the heart of BJP’s trouble in Jharkhand is a tussle that started when two Bills were approved by the Legislative Assembly in November 2016. These Bills sought to amend the Chhotanagpur Tenancy Act (CTA), 1908 and the Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act (SPT), 1949. These Acts protected the tribals’ rights over land by imposing restrictions on sale and transfer of Adivasi land in the state.

The amendment to Section 21 of the CTA and Section 13 of the SPT Act would have removed these restrictions on the use of tribal land by owners or tenants for non-agricultural purposes.

An amendment was proposed to Section 49(1) of the CTA, to add a clause that would allow transfer of Adivasi land for projects “like road, canal, railway, cable transmission, pipelines, and schools, colleges, universities, panchayat buildings, hospitals, anganwadis” and any other “government purpose” as is notified by state government in the official gazette.

Section 71B of the CTA that makes violations of its provisions a criminal offence, were retained.

These proposed amendments set out major protests across many parts of the state. Amid these protests, Governor Droupadi Murmu refused to grant assent to the two Bills. Yet, the resentment among the communities have seemingly remained.

Reports indicate that dissatisfaction of tribals over the slow implementation of the Forest Rights Act (FRA) may also be a key issue. The FRA offers recognises Scheduled Tribes and other traditional forest dwellers’ land rights.

BJP has been working to win their trust back. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is BJP’s star campaigner, has been trying to strike a chord with the tribals.

Addressing an election rally in Khunti, PM Modi said, "Lord Ram left Ayodhya as a prince but returned as 'Maryada Purushottam' 14 years later as he spent time with Adivasis in forests, imbibed their values."

The prime minister also said he learnt many things from former Lok Sabha deputy Speaker Kadia Munda when he used to visit Khunti as a BJP worker.

Also read: A tussle between local and national narratives in Jharkhand

Kadia Munda won Khunti Lok Sabha seat several times. In the 2019 general elections, however, he made way for Union Tribal Affairs Minister Arjun Munda who also tasted victory from the constituency. Arjun Munda, the former chief minister of the state, continues to be BJP’s tribal face there.

"As a worker of the organisation (BJP), I visited Khunti. Kadia Munda ji is a brilliant observer of villages. Together, we used to discuss several things. Again we are following his guidance now as we are working hard to develop Jharkhand," PM Modi said.

It is to be noted that BJP and the AJSU, who had fought together in the 2014 polls, are contesting separately this time. On the other hand, the Opposition vote share is likely to consolidate as the JMM, Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) are contesting in an alliance.

Also read: Will BJP's solo act in Jharkhand bear fruit?

Jharkhand is voting to elect a fresh Legislative Assembly in five phases. While the first phase was held on November 30, the final phase will take place on December 20. Counting of votes will happen on December 23.

(Based on data from the 2011 Census report and the Election Commission of India)

Jharkhand Assembly election 2019: For the latest news, views and updates, click here