Indus Treaty in the crosshairs: Is a water war brewing between India and Pakistan?

PM Modi has said Indus Waters Treaty will remain on pause till Pakistan takes credible and verifiable action against terrorism on its soil. (PTI)

“Pakistan ko Bharat Ke Haq Ka Paani Nahi Milega, Bhartiyon Ke Khoon Se Khelna Pakistan Ko Ab Mehnga Padega" — Prime Minister Narendra Modi said this in Bikaner a few days ago, making it clear that the Indus Waters Treaty will remain in abeyance.

He also said Operation Sindoor has not ended, and that it is only on pause. The hostilities may have paused for now but Pakistan is deeply troubled by the water issue.

So, will the next India-Pakistan conflict under Operation Sindoor be over water? The Indus, Jhelum and Chenab could be the new flashpoints.

Let’s dive into what could soon become the biggest water conflict of the 21st century between India and Pakistan.

Putting an end to the Indus Waters Treaty has been a long-time ideological project of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS has always felt this pact signed between then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and former Pakistan President Ayub Khan in 1960 was unfair to India.

In fact, scrapping of this treaty was also on the table of Atal Bihari Vajpayee post-Kargil and Narendra Modi post the Uri and Pulwama terror strikes. India finally took the step post-Pahalgam.

‘Tum Hamara Pani Band Kar Doge, Hum Tumhari Saans Band Kar Denge"—this was Pakistan DG ISPR clearly threatening India for stopping waters of the rivers flowing to Pakistan. So dire is the situation that DG ISPR Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry is echoing similar hate-filled sentiments against India like those expressed by terrorist Hafiz Saeed in the past.

“If you stop our waters, we’ll choke your breath" is the threat coming from Pakistan as the country’s government and army are under grave pressure from its farmers over India pausing the Indus Waters Treaty.

To this, India has clearly said blood and water cannot flow together. PM Modi has said Indus Waters Treaty will remain on pause till Pakistan takes credible and verifiable action against terrorism on its soil. India knows that is never going to happen. So, the Indus Waters Treaty is as good as dead. India knows it has the upper hand.

And Pakistan is worried, deeply worried over this prospect. Pakistan Senator Syed Ali Zafar, who belongs to the Tehreek-e-Insaf party of Imran Khan, has said India has thrown a ‘Water Bomb’ at Pakistan, which needs to be urgently defused.

“We will starve to death if we don’t solve this water crisis immediately. Indus Basin is our lifeline. 3/4th of our water comes from here. 9 out of our 10 people rely on the Indus Water Basin to live their life. 90 per cent of our crops rely on the Indus Water basin. All our projects and dams are built in the Indus Water Basin," Zafar has said in the Pakistan Assembly.

If push comes to shove, Pakistan could start a violent conflict with India again over the Indus Waters Treaty. It already feels deeply humiliated over its failure against Operation Sindoor. India, hence, expects Pakistan to do something and remains on high alert.

Pakistan tried to start a dialogue with India through a letter, which India has rebuffed. The Pakistan government is now making the issue international and has termed India’s move on Indus Waters Treaty as an ‘act of war’.

Bilawal Bhutto has threatened that “either our water or their (India’s) blood will flow in the Indus". The next 5-6 months could be crucial on the India-Pakistan front. India is telling the world community that it had been working on reviewing the Indus Waters Treaty for many years now—as population changes and geographical changes have taken place.

So, what is India’s plan?

Let’s look at the facts first. An issue always has been India’s capacity to build dams in the upper reaches of the western rivers given the geographical challenges. India’s current storage capacity of water that flows through the three western rivers to Pakistan is less than 1 per cent. In short, it is very limited.

All existing hydropower projects of India on the western rivers that flow to Pakistan are ‘run-of-the-river’ projects, and hence have minimal storage capacity. India can only stop water here for 2-3 days by filling up its reservoirs to the brim—but it has the upper hand now as it does not need to inform Pakistan when it will stop water and when it will release it, creating uncertainty of limited droughts and floods in Pakistan.

The regular flushing of dams by India in the last one month has led to fluctuations in water flow to Pakistan. This is what has alarmed Pakistan.

Things could get worse for Pakistan from 2026. Pakul Dul will be India’s first storage project on these rivers, which can effectively store a larger quantity of water and will be ready by next year. Pakal Dul is coming up on a tributary of river Chenab in Kishtwar. At 167m of height, it is the highest dam of its kind in India. It will be able to utilise the permissible storage of 0.1 MAF under Indus Waters Treaty; and maybe more now, since the treaty is in abeyance. Earlier this month, the Modi government granted permission for laying of overhead transmission lines under the project in order to fast-track it.

India is also fast-tracking its hydroelectric projects like Kishanganga and Ratle to not use them just as energy initiatives but also as levers of strategic pressure. The psychological impact of India’s move is hence already showing, with Pakistan political class under pressure from their population on the impending implication of water flow of western rivers being regulated by India.

For a start, India now need not bother about Pakistan’s objections on interactional forums to the Kishanganga, Ratle and Paul Dul hydroelectric projects. The combined hydrological effect of these projects gives India a strong geopolitical signaling and strategic calculus to corner Pakistan. The Pakistan-sponsored terror strike on civilians in Pahalgam has changed the rules of the game with India making Pakistan civilians pay for the misadventures of their Army.

India had already diverted water from the Jhelum via a 23 km tunnel through the Kishanganga Project that was inaugurated by PM Narendra Modi in 2018 in Bandipora. On the same day, Modi laid the foundation stone of the Pakal Dul Power Project, the largest hydro power project in J&K with 1,000 MW capacity, and J&K’s first storage project.

The other big bother for Pakistan is the 850 MW Ratle Hydro Electric Project in Jammu & Kashmir, especially since last year when a major milestone has been achieved here with the diversion of Chenab river through diversion tunnels at Drabshalla in Kishtwar district. The river diversion has enabled isolation of dam area at river bed for starting the critical activity of excavation and construction of the dam. India can now proceed with the dam despite Pakistan’s design objections related to the spillway height and drawdown levels of the project. Modi government approved the Ratle project in 2021 at Rs 5,282 crore.

The last time the India and Pakistan teams had met for the annual Indus Waters Treaty talks was last year in June, when a Pakistani delegation travelled to India and visited Kishtwar to see various dam sites. Pakistan continued to object to the Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakul Dul hydroelectric plants by India, saying that they violate the provisions of the treaty.

For now, the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 with the World Bank as a signatory to the pact, is history.