Haryana and J&K results: Exit poll predictions off the mark again

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The exit polls missed the mark after predicting a hung assembly for Jammu and Kashmir, and a clear majority for the Congress in Haryana. Despite facing backlash over the wrong predictions ahead of the Lok Sabha elections only a few months ago, the pollsters have failed miserably once again.

The exit poll results generate a lot of interest before the actual results day, but they often fail to capture the true sentiment of voters, and that's why understanding their limitations is very crucial to predicting poll results.

The failures of exit polls in recent times have made voters think twice before relying on the survey outcomes. They are often left wondering why they shouldn't just wait for the EVMs to reveal the actual results on counting day.

Results of the elections do not always mirror the outcomes of the exit polls. National Conference leader Omar Abdullah criticised reliance on the exit polls and said it's always better to wait for the results. Immediately after winning the J&K elections, Omar on Tuesday mocked the exit polls, which had predicted a hung assembly in the Union Territory.

"I am amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I'm ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of October. The rest is just time pass,” he wrote on X after the exit poll results were released.

Chief minister Nayab Singh Saini, similarly, dismissed the exit poll results, insisting that his party would return to power with a full majority. "On October 8, we will form the government, and the Congress will once again blame the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs)," Saini said.

Amid the curiosity surrounding election predictions, analysts suggest that exit poll surveys can sometimes be swayed by external noise, leading to an undercount of silent voters.

The gap between exit poll predictions and actual results has sparked concerns about the accuracy of these surveys, the methods used for data collection and the sampling strategies employed.

In June, almost all exit polls predicted the BJP’s return to power with a majority of its own, but the party did not perform well in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, ending with 240 seats. At least 12 exit polls had predicted a landslide win for the NDA in the Lok Sabha elections 2024.