Gujarat model in Bihar? BJP weighs options to counter anti-incumbency ahead of polls

The BJP is said to be considering a large-scale overhaul to curb anti-incumbency in the state. (File: PTI)

With Chief Minister Nitish Kumar showing signs of frailty, the BJP pushing for a larger share of seats in the NDA, and the RJD snapping at its heels, the saffron party is said to be weighing bold options ahead of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections to counter anti-incumbency.

Among the ideas on the table is the so-called ‘Gujarat model’, a sweeping revamp of candidates similar to the shake-ups the BJP carried out in Gujarat and Chhattisgarh, where it later reaped big electoral dividends.

The urgency for such a reset has grown amid repeated feedback from the ground and recent surveys pointing to simmering voter anger against a large section of sitting MLAs. With the Election Commission set to announce poll dates shortly, the BJP faces a critical question on how best it can stem the potential damage through anti-incumbency as it contests the polls under Nitish Kumar, who is seeking a fifth term in office.

According to The Indian Express, a Gujarat-style overhaul of candidates was discussed at a BJP core group meeting last week. In Gujarat, the party dropped 45 of its 108 MLAs and replaced the entire state Cabinet just months before the election

The party went on to secure a seventh straight term in the state. A similar reset in Chhattisgarh ahead of the the Lok Sabha polls also paid rich dividends.

Party insiders, however, acknowledge that Bihar presents a tougher challenge. Unlike Gujarat, where the BJP is the dominant force, it has long had to depend on the JD(U) for power in Bihar. Most of its sitting MLAs are younger faces, with only two over 75, effectively ruling out age as a filtering factor.

Moreover, there are concerns that large-scale ticket denials could trigger Karnataka-style rebellions, with disgruntled leaders drifting to rival camps and eventually denting the party's performance.

Still, the pressure to refresh the party’s image is high. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj has sharpened its attack on senior BJP leaders over corruption, and there is recognition that fielding clean, credible candidates could help reset the narrative.

Meanwhile, the Nitish-led NDA government is banking on its flurry of welfare schemes to cushion anti-incumbency. The most significant among them, the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, which saw Rs 10,000 each transferred into the accounts of 75 lakh women, is expected to resonate strongly with voters.

Seat-sharing talks are also at a crucial stage, with the BJP seeking 100-104 constituencies this time. Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the BJP’s Bihar election in-charge, is leading negotiations with JD(U) leaders.

For the BJP, the choice is stark. Does it risk a last-minute mutiny with a Gujarat-style purge of sitting MLAs, or err on the side of caution and stick with familiar faces? With elections weeks away, the final call now rests with the party's top brass.