Delhi predictions: Face-saver for pollsters as exit polls finally get it right

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters celebrate outside the BJP state headquarters

As Bhartiya Janata Party(BJP) marched to victory with 48 seats over the ruling AAP in the national capital and the Congress could not get any seats. Among the key exit polls, the closest were Axis My India, which projected the BJP winning 45-55 seats, and AAP bagging 15-25, while Today’s Chanakya had predicted 45-57 seats for the BJP, and 13-25 for the AAP.

Delhi polls results are in line with predictions of the exit polls which indicated a clear victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on 5 February. Exit polls got the predictions in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and several Assembly polls held in the last ten years.

People’s Insight exit poll gave the BJP and allies 40 to 44 seats, 25 to 29 to AAP; P-Marq exit poll predicted 39-49 seats for the BJP and allies, and 21-31 seats for AAP; JVC exit poll said the BJP and allies would get 39-45, and AAP would get 22-31 seats; and Chanakya Strategies exit poll said the BJP and allies were likely to get 39-44 seats, and the AAP was likely to get 25-28 Some pollsters predicted a bigger share for BJP.

CNX predicted a landslide for the BJP with 49-61 seats, and 10-19 seats for the ruling party. The People’s Pulse exit poll showed the NDA was likely to get 51 to 60 seats, while the AAP was said to get 10-19 seats. Two surveys predicted AAP’s victory — Wee Preside, which gave it 46-52 and 18-23 for BJP and Mind Brink Media, which predicted 44-49 seats for AAP, 21-25 for BJP, and 0-1 for the Congress. Matrize exit poll predicted that the BJP-led NDA would get 35-40 seats, while the AAP might bag 32 to 37 seats. DV Research predicted 26-34 seats for the AAP, and 36-44 for the BJP and allies, giving zero seats to the Congress. Most surveys predicted 0-1 seats for the Congress, while some, like the Chanakya Strategies exit poll predicted it may get 2-3 seats.

*With Agency Inputs