Delhi puts Indus Waters Treaty on hold: Why India has an upper hand and Pakistan may regret

Among the series of punishing steps announced by Foreign Secretary, the boldest one can be pinned to the suspension of the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan indefinitely.

In the wake of the recent Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives, the Centre has decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty which has survived four wars and years of cross-border terrorism against India by Pakistan.

The Cabinet Committee on Security or CCS - the country's highest-decision making body on national security- said Indus Waters Treaty will be held in abeyance with immediate effect.

India’s move has drawn sharp reaction from Islamabad, with a senior Pakistani minister calling the move an act of “water warfare".

"India's reckless suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is an act of water warfare; a cowardly, illegal move," Pakistan's power minister Awais Lekhari said in a post on X late on Wednesday night.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed on September 19, 1960, between India and Pakistan. It is a key example of cross-border water-sharing.

It was brokered by the World Bank after nine years of talks and signed by India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan to manage shared rivers. The Treaty has 12 Articles and 8 Annexures (from A to H).
According to the treaty, the treaty allocates the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan.

The treaty outlined clear guidelines for the equitable sharing of the river and its tributaries to ensure both nations could meet their water needs.

However, it lacks an exit clause, meaning neither India nor Pakistan can legally abrogate it unilaterally. The Treaty has no end date, and any modification requires the consent of both parties.

But it does contain a dispute resolution mechanism: Article IX, along with Annexures F and G, lays out procedures for raising grievances — first before the Permanent Indus Commission, then a neutral expert, and eventually, a forum of arbitrators.

Why will the impact on India be less?
India can utilise the western rivers for limited non-consumptive purposes that doesn’t affect the flow. Being an upper riparian country, India is likely to have multiple options before it.

Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who served as India's Indus Water Commissioner for over six years and has been associated with work related to the treaty, told PTI that India is under no obligation to follow the restrictions on the "reservoir flushing" of the Kishanganga reservoir and other projects on western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indus Water Treaty currently prohibits it.

“Flushing can help India desilt its reservoir but then filling the entire reservoir could take days. Under the treaty, reservoir filling after the flushing has to be done in August -- peak monsoon period -- but with the pact in abeyance, it could be done anytime,” he said.

According to the treaty, there are design restrictions on building structures such as dams on Indus and its tributaries. In the past, Pakistan has raised objections over the designs. But with the treaty not being there, it will not be obligatory for India to take Pakistan’s concerns onboard.

According to the treaty, there are also operational restrictions on how reservoirs are operated. With the treaty in abeyance, these are no longer applicable.

According to Saxena, India can stop sharing flood data on the rivers. “This could also prove detrimental to Pakistan, especially during the monsoon when rivers swell. India will now have no restriction on storage on western rivers, particularly the Jhelum, and the country can take several flood control measures to mitigate floods in the Valley,” he told PTI.

This is exactly opposite of India’s situation with China regarding Brahmaputra river. China is planning to build a colossal hydroelectric dam on Yarlung Tsangpo, which eventually becomes the Brahmaputra as it flows into Arunachal Pradesh. This may affect the quantity of Brahmaputra's water flow available to India.

How will Pakistan be affected?

The treaty is vital for Islamabad as it receives about 80% of the total water flow from these rivers. The Indus River network serves as Pakistan's principal water resource, supporting a population of tens of millions. According to reports, the water meets 23% of agricultural needs which supports 68% of Pakistan’s rural inhabitants. Reduced water may eventually lead to lower crop yields, food shortages, and economic instability in rural areas dependent on farming. Key crops like wheat, rice, and cotton require significant irrigation.

The Indus basin also supplies 154.3 million acre-feet of water yearly, which is vital for irrigating extensive agricultural areas and ensuring food security. Pakistan, which is already facing a financial crisis, also suffers from critical water management issues such as groundwater depletion, salinisation of agricultural lands, and limited water storage capacity.

Pakistan also has a low water storage capacity with major dams such Mangla and Tarbela having a combined live storage of only about 14.4 MAF. It reportedly has just 10% of Pakistan’s annual water share under the treaty.