Delhi effect to rub off in Bihar? BJP eyes 225 seats in Assembly polls this year

A resurgent BJP has set an ambitious target of winning 225 of the 243 Assembly seats in the polls scheduled for November this year.

Buoyed by its recent victory in the Delhi Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party has sets itself a steep target of winning 225 of 243 Assembly seats in Bihar, the only other state where polls are due this year.

The Bihar Assembly elections, likely to be held in November this year, will see Chief Minister Nitish Kumar make a fresh bid for power in alliance with the BJP. He is up against Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal which hopes to cash in on anti-incumbency of two decades to return to power in the state.

The outcome of the recent Delhi elections, which saw the BJP decimate the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and dislodge it from power after a decade-long stint in power, is likely to influence the political environment in Bihar leading up to the polls.

The BJP's victory in Delhi comes on the back of wins in two successive elections in Haryana and Maharashtra. The hat-trick of wins for the saffron party, turning the tide after an unimpressive outing in the Lok Sabha polls, has returned the momentum in its favour and could reflect in the seat-sharing talks with friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Nitish Kumar's JD(U).

The party is likely to push for a higher share of seats in talks with its NDA ally in the state. In the last elections in 2020, the JD(U) contested 115 seats but managed to win just 43. The BJP, on the other hand, won 74 of the 110 seats it contested.

The JD(U), on the other hand, would like to cite the Lok Sabha performance of both parties to to push back. In the Lok Sabha elections held last year, both parties won 12 seats each. However, the BJP contested 17 while the JD(U) contested 16 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The situation may get a lot more messy in the Opposition camp where the Congress has registered poor performances in three states on the trot. Having played big brother ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and beyond, the Congress will find it tough to negotiate with the RJD for a similar share of seats as the 2020 elections.

In the previous Assembly polls in the state, the Congress won only 19 of the 70 seats it contested as part of the Mahagathbandhan. The RJD, on the other hand, bagged 80 out of the 144 seats it contested and emerged as the single-largest party in the state.

The RJD had the momentum going with it against Nitish who is being increasingly viewed as a spent force. His frequent switches between the Grand Alliance and the NDA have done his credibility no good either.

However, the BJP's resurgence in the form of victories where the odds were against it has tipped the scale back in favour of the NDA. The factor was also visible in the by-elections in November 2024 in 5 Assembly seats where the NDA bagged all, including two RJD bastions of Belaganj and Imamganj.

Meanwhile, political activities in the state have already gained steam with RJD and the JD(U) both hitting the ground running for the polls. Both parties have lined up promises and are already reaching out to voters through padyatras and rallies.

The Budget allocation of Rs 70,000 crore for Bihar in July, followed by announcements like the setting up of a Makhana Board in the state and a Kosi canal project to mitigate floods in North Bihar are also seen as measures that could elevate the BJP's standing in a state.

The recent rise of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party could also add another layer of complexity for the Opposition RJD. In the November 2024 bypolls, the margin of victory for the RJD candidates in its two strongholds was lower than the votes polled in favour of Jan Suraaj candidates.