Can Owaisi's Bihar playbook disrupt West Bengal? The formula worrying Mamata Banerjee ahead of 2026 polls

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. (File: PTI)

A series of recent political tremors in West Bengal has triggered quiet unease within the Trinamool Congress, with signs emerging that the Muslim vote, one of Mamata Banerjee's two foundational pillars alongside rural women, may no longer be the monolith it once was. The developments come just months after the fragmentation of the minority vote in Bihar's Seemanchal region helped decimate the Mahagathbandhan, a development that political observers say the TMC is determined to avoid as West Bengal heads towards a high-stakes election in 2026.

The latest signal came on December 6 in Murshidabad, where suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir laid the foundation stone for a replica of the Babri Masjid. Two days later, Kabir announced that he would float a new political outfit on December 22 and confirmed he was in talks with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM and the Furfura Sharif–backed Indian Secular Front (ISF).

Kabir claimed his platform would contest 135 seats and emerge as the "sole representative of Muslims", arguing that the community's interests had not been safeguarded by the TMC. "You will see the impact shortly… We will try to become the sole representative of the Muslims," Kabir told The Indian Express.

Kabir's remarks were amplified by the sizeable crowd at his event which came even as Mamata Banerjee toured Malda and Murshidabad, also regions with a significant Mulsim population, urging an end to "communal hatred", signalling that the TMC views the drift seriously.

As per the 2011 Census, Muslims comprise nearly 27 per cent of Bengal's population and dominate districts such as Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur. In 2021, the TMC swept 20 of Murshidabad's 22 seats, eight of 12 in Malda, and four of six in Uttar Dinajpur. But a series of recent fault lines has complicated the party's outreach.

OBC reservation anger: Protests erupted in Murshidabad after the state unveiled its revised OBC list, with demonstrators alleging that Muslims had been "deprived". Thirty-seven communities were completely removed from the list, while 34 others, including Shershabadia, Khotta, Mullick and Rajmistry, were downgraded from OBC-A to OBC-B, reducing their quota benefits. "The community is feeling betrayed,” said Mir Hasnat Ali of the Paschim Banga Swadhikar Raksha Manch told The Indian Express.

Waqf law U-turn: After months of criticising the amended Waqf law, the state government asked District Magistrates to upload Waqf property lists on the Centre's UMEED portal, a move critics say amounts to a climbdown. "People's emotions are linked to Waqf properties. She has taken Muslims for granted," Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said.

These tensions have created political openings that Owaisi's AIMIM and the ISF appear eager to exploit.

In the 2025 Bihar Assembly election, the Mahagathbandhan lost 19 of the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal's 24 seats. The NDA won 14, while AIMIM retained its 5, exactly mirroring its 2020 footprint. Muslims make up between 38 per cent and 68 per cent of the population in the region's four districts — Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria and Purnia. However, deep splits in the minority vote allowed the NDA to sweep the Hindu vote and erase the Mahagathbandhan's arithmetic advantage.

Even where the Congress retained some goodwill, it was insufficient to counter AIMIM. Jokihat saw the RJD fall to fourth place, behind AIMIM, JD(U) and Jan Suraaj. The numbers marked a dramatic erosion of the M-Y (Muslim–Yadav) base that has historically anchored the RJD-led alliance.

For Bengal's ruling party, the message is uncomfortably clear. Once Muslim consolidation breaks, it breaks swiftly, and often decisively.

Despite the visible churn, TMC leaders maintain that Muslims ultimately have "no alternative". Spokesperson Jayprakash Majumder invoked the acronym TINA. "There Is No Alternative. It is better for them to stick with Mamata Banerjee rather than bring the BJP to power."

But critics argue this logic is wearing thin. "How long will we be scared like this?” asked Hasnat Ali. "First, the youth were deprived through the OBC list, then the government did a U-turn on the Waqf law."

Left leaders also say the TMC has opened the door for rivals. "The huge crowd at Kabir's event shows the mistrust among Muslims," CPI(M) leader Md Selim said. He accused the TMC of "throwing out" Muslim groups previously included in OBC-A and B.

The BJP, too, believes the Muslim vote is fragmenting. "The TMC's vote bank will erode after the Waqf and OBC issues," said BJP leader Rahul Sinha. The BJP's own ability to convert this into seats, however, remains uncertain, given the polarisation of Muslim districts against the party.

Unlike Bihar's Seemanchal, Bengal's Muslim-majority belts have a longer history of consolidated voting patterns and a more deeply embedded TMC organisational structure. But the combination of Kabir's rebellion, OBC resentment, Waqf anger and symbolic religious overtures has made the political space more competitive than ever since 2011.

For Mamata Banerjee, the challenge is two-fold. One, she needs to prevent any fragmentation within the minority vote. Second, to counter attempts by AIMIM, ISF and dissident leaders to build alternative platforms.

The Bihar precedent suggests that even a 5-10 per cent shift in the Muslim vote can decisively alter outcomes. Bengal's 2026 polls may well test whether the "Owaisi formula" of targeted appeals to disaffected Muslim pockets can find resonance in a state where a regional behemoth like Mamata Banerjee has long been the community's most dominant political voice.