Can Chirag Paswan's LJP play spoilsport in Bihar elections in 2025?

LJP has played spoilsport in 2020 elections

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) may have seen its average vote share per seat decline in Bihar's 2020 assembly election, but its disruptive potential only grew stronger. A Moneycontrol analysis reveals that the party significantly influenced outcomes in closely contested seats, often to the detriment of its former allies.

In 2020, the LJP contested 135 seats, a substantial jump from the 42 seats it fought in 2015. Despite its vote share per seat contested dropping from 28.79 percent in 2015 to 10.26 percent in 2020, the party emerged as a spoiler in nearly half the constituencies it contested and lost. In 64 of the 134 seats where the party failed to win, LJP’s vote tally exceeded the margin of victory, effectively altering the final outcome.

The biggest casualties were the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VSIP) and the Janata Dal (United). VSIP, founded by Bollywood set designer Mukesh Sahani in 2018, lost 30 percent or four of the 19 seats it contested. In all of those losses, the LJP's vote share was higher than VSIP's margin of defeat.

The JD(U), the dominant regional force led by Nitish Kumar, bore a greater brunt. It contested 115 seats and lost in 72. In 27 of these, or a quarter of the total fought, the LJP's vote share exceeded the margin of defeat.

Other opposition parties weren’t spared either. The Congress lost 11 of the 70 seats it contested due to the LJP’s presence, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal suffered in 17 of 144 constituencies. The 2020 election was especially close-fought, with reduced victory margins across the board, amplifying the effect of smaller players like the LJP.

Interestingly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had distanced itself from the LJP ahead of the 2020 polls, remained largely unaffected. Only one of the 110 seats it contested saw an LJP vote share greater than BJP's margin of loss.

This equation could change in 2025. LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan has declared his intent to contest all 243 seats in the upcoming state election.