BMC election exit poll results: Pollsters predict clear majority for BJP-Sena, setback for Thackeray cousins

File photo of Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis

• Exit poll: Mahayuti likely to win 138 seats in Mumbai's 227-member BMC elections
• Thackeray cousins may win 59 seats; Congress projected 24 wards.
• BMC polls test split Shiv Sena factions, BJP's non-Marathi voter base

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The BJP and Shiv Sena's Mahayuti is set to sweep the high-stakes BMC elections in Mumbai, trouncing the reunited Thackeray cousins (Uddhav and Raj) and their Marathi Manoos poll pitch, according to two exit polls.

The Axis My India exit poll has predicted 131-151 wards for the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena in the 227-member civic body. It forecast 58-68 wards for the alliance of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. The pollster forecast 12-16 wards for Congress.

Meanwhile, the JVC exit poll predicted 138 seats for the Mahayuti and 59 for Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's MNS. It has also predicted 24 wards for the Congress, which is not contesting as part of its state-level Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

On similar lines, the Sakal exit poll for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections has also projected that the BJP-led Mahayuti will emerge as the single largest alliance with 119 seats in the 227-member civic body. As per the exit poll, the Shiv Sena (UBT)-led alliance is expected to emerge victorious on around 75 seats. The Sakal exit poll predicts Congress party winning around 20 seats, with others likely to secure 14 seats.

In Mumbai, the BJP-led Mahayuti was locked in a fierce contest with the united Thackeray cousins Raj and Uddhav for control of the cash-rich BMC.

Voting for the 227-member civic body, India's largest and richest, began at 7.30am on Thursday amid tight security and ended at 5.30pm. As many as 1,700 candidates were in the fray and the results will be declared on January 16.

High-voltage election

The BMC polls are being held after a gap of nearly 10 years due to various legal and administrative delays.

The elections, seen as a "mini-assembly" poll battle, will test the ground strength of the split factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, as well as the electoral prowess of the ruling Mahayuti and the Congress.

While the governance of BMC assumes importance due to the sheer size of the civic body, it also holds significant political prestige.

The BJP's campaign was led by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis who dismissed the coming together of Uddhav and Raj as ineffective. He also provided a firm counter to the Maratha Manoos poll plank of the Shiv Sena with a focus on expanding BJP's base among non-Marathi voters, particularly North Indians and Gujaratis, who comprise nearly 30–35 per cent of the city's electorate.

The battle for BMC will also, in a way, put to rest the debate over the "real Shiv Sena" in Maharashtra as it will be the first civic body election since the vertical split in the party in 2022. The undivided Shiv Sena dominated the elections since 1997. Both Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) are now battling for political legitimacy in Mumbai to emerge as the true heir to the Bal Thackeray's legacy.

Thackeray United

In a significant political development ahead of the elections, estranged cousins Uddhav and Raj Thackeray joined hands after two decades in their bid to consolidate Marathi votes even as rival NCP factions forged a local alliance in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad.

The efficacy of a united front will be put to test in the election, as the Shiv Sena and MNS go all out to woo the Marathi voters, who make up nearly 38% of the total population in the city.

The Congress also asserted its presence in Mumbai by stepping out of the shadow of its Maha Vikas Aghadi allies - Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP). The Congress has joined hands with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh in the state capital, even as it contests independently in Nagpur.

In Mumbai, the BJP contested 137 seats, the Shiv Sena 90, while the NCP fought separately on 94 seats. The Shiv Sena (UBT) fielded 163 candidates, the MNS 52, the Congress 143 and the VBA 46.

Mumbai will see several prominent candidates battling it out for supremacy in civic polls. These include former MLA Sada Sarvankar's son and Shiv Sena candidate Samadhan, who is contesting from Ward 194 in Worli, the constituency of Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA Aaditya Thackeray.